Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T02:03:28.670Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Fatality Thresholds, Causal Heterogeneity, and Civil War Research: Reconsidering the Link Between Narcotics and Conflict

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 June 2016

Noel Anderson  and
Alec Worsnop
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Determining the appropriate fatality threshold criteria for case selection in the civil war literature has proven contentious. Yet, despite continued debate, our survey of the literature finds that scholars rarely examine their findings across multiple thresholds. Of those that did evaluate their findings in this way, nearly half found that their results changed at different thresholds. Because minor and major conflicts often exhibit different causal patterns, scholars should explore their empirical findings across a range of theoretically motivated thresholds. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we demonstrate that the relationship between narcotics and conflict intensity varies across thresholds. We then introduce a dynamic theory that emphasizes the endogeneity of rebel groups’ decisions to turn to drug cultivation during civil war.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 7 , Issue 1 , January 2019 , pp. 85 - 105
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Noel Anderson, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Building E40, Room 404, 1 Amherst Street, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA ([email protected]); Alec Worsnop, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Building E40, Room 404, 1 Amherst Street, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA ([email protected]). The authors thank Päivi Lujala for sharing her data. They also thank Mark Bell, Fotini Christia, James Conran, Cassidy D’Aloia, Kristen Eck, Brian Haggerty, Morgan Kaplan, Gary King, Nick Miller, Roger Petersen, Stathis Kalyvas, Jennifer Pan, Molly Roberts, Kirssa Cline Ryckman, Kai Thaler, Omar Wasow, Catherine Worsnop, seminar participants at MIT, Harvard, and Yale, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions on previous drafts of this paper. All errors remain the authors’ own. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2016.22

References

Angrist, Joshua D., and Kugler, Adriana D.. 2008. ‘Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia’. The Review of Economics and Statistics 90(2):191–215.Google Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Miguel, Edward. 2010. ‘Civil War’. Journal of Economic Literature 48(1):3–57.Google Scholar
Buhaug, Halvard, Gates, Scott, and Lujala, Päivi. 2009. ‘Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4):544–569.Google Scholar
Chaloemtiarana, Thak. 2007. Thailand: The Politics of Despotic Paternalism. Ithaca, NY: Southeast Asia Program Publications.Google Scholar
Chernick, Marc. 2007. ‘FARC-EP: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People’s Army’. In Marianne Heiberg, Brendan O’Leary and John Tirman (eds), Terror, Insurgency, and the State: Ending Protracted Conflicts, 51–81. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’. Oxford Economic Papers 56(4):563–595.Google Scholar
Cornell, Svante E. 2005. ‘The Interaction of Narcotics and Conflict’. Journal of Peace Research 42(6):751–760.Google Scholar
Cornell, Svante E. 2007. ‘Narcotics and Armed Conflict: Interaction and Implications’. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 30(3):207–227.Google Scholar
Cunningham, David E., and Lemke, Douglas. 2013. ‘Combining Civil and Interstate Wars’. International Organization 67(3):609–627.Google Scholar
Dahl, Marianne, and Høyland, Bjørn. 2012. ‘Peace on Quicksand? Challenging the Conventional Wisdom About Economic Growth and Post-Conflict Risks’. Journal of Peace Research 49(3):423–429.Google Scholar
Dube, Oeindrila, and Vargas, Juan. 2013. ‘Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia’. The Review of Economic Studies 80(4):1384–1421.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2004. ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?’. Journal of Peace Research 41(3):275–301.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David. 2003. ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’. American Political Science Review 97(1):75–90.Google Scholar
Getmansky, Anna. 2013. ‘You Can’t Win If You Don’t Fight: The Role of Regime Type in Counterinsurgency Outbreaks and Outcomes’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(4):709–734.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard. 2002. ‘Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset’. Journal of Peace Research 39(5):615–637.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Ellingsen, Tanja, Gates, Scott, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2001. ‘Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992’. American Political Science Review 95(1):33–48.Google Scholar
Ho, Daniel E., Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth A.. 2007. ‘Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference’. Political Analysis 15(3):199–236.Google Scholar
Hultquist, Philip. 2013. ‘Power Parity and Peace? The Role of Relative Power in Civil War Settlement’. Journal of Peace Research 50(5):623–634.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Macartan. 2005. ‘Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4):508–537.Google Scholar
Keen, David. 2000. ‘Incentives and Disincentives for Violence’. In Mats R. Berdal and David M. Malone (eds), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars, 1st ed. 19–42. London, England: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2005. ‘The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals’. Political Analysis 14(2):131–159.Google Scholar
Lacina, Bethany, Gleditsch, Nils Petter, and Russett, Bruce. 2006. ‘The Declining Risk of Death in Battle’. International Studies Quarterly 50(3):673–680.Google Scholar
Le Billon, Philippe. 2001. ‘The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts’. Political Geography 20(5):561–584.Google Scholar
Lujala, Päivi. 2009. ‘Deadly Combat Over Natural Resources: Gems, Petroleum, Drugs, and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(1):50–71.Google Scholar
Miroff, Nick. 2015. ‘Colombia Is Again the World’s Top Coca Producer. Here’s Why That’s a Blow to the U.S.’ The Washington Post. Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-a-blow-to-us-policy-colombia-is-again-the-worlds-top-producer-of-coca/2015/11/10/316d2f66-7bf0-11e5-bfb6-65300a5ff562_story.html, accessed 6 February 2016.Google Scholar
Piazza, James A. 2012. ‘The Opium Trade and Patterns of Terrorism in the Provinces of Afghanistan: An Empirical Analysis’. Terrorism and Political Violence 24(2):213–234.Google Scholar
Powell, Jonathan M., and Thyne, Clayton L.. 2011. ‘Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset’. Journal of Peace Research 48(2):249–259.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004. ‘Bargaining and Learning While Fighting’. American Journal of Political Science 48(2):344–361.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Rosenbaum, Paul R. 2005. ‘Heterogeneity and Causality: Unit Heterogeneity and Design Sensitivity in Observational Studies’. The American Statistician 59(2):147–152.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2004. ‘How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases’. International Organization 58(1):35–67.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2000. ‘Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature’. World Politics 52(4):437–483.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2001. ‘A Note on the Death Threshold in Coding Civil War Events’. Newsletter of the American Political Science Association Section on Conflict Processes, June Issue.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2004. ‘What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6):814–858.Google Scholar
Sanín, Francisco Gutiérrez. 2004. ‘Criminal Rebels? A Discussion of Civil War and Criminality from the Colombian Experience’. Politics & Society 32(2):257–285.Google Scholar
Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2009. ‘Opiates for the Matches: Matching Methods for Causal Inference’. Annual Review of Political Science 12(1):487–508.Google Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2012. ‘Organizing Insurgency: Networks, Resources, and Rebellion in South Asia’. International Security 37(1):142–177.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. ‘The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement’. International Organization 51(3):335–364.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Anderson and Worsnop supplementary material

Appendix

Download Anderson and Worsnop supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 578.8 KB