Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T08:44:53.851Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Temporal Order and Causal Inference∗

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Warren E. Miller
Warren E. Miller*
Affiliation:
Late of Arizona State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provide important insights into the structure of the political belief systems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greater centrality of some idea elements rather than others in the context of short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoretically relevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expected structural differences connecting policy related predispositions and policy preferences; specification also makes it possible to test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudes and emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specifications disclose the extent to which population heterogeneity produces a blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on the total electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets of voters specified by theoretical criteria.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , 16 December 1999 , pp. 119 - 146
Copyright
Copyright © 1999 by the Society for Political Methodology 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

References

Alwin, D. P., and Hauser, R. M. 1975. “The Decomposition of Effects in Path Analysis.” American Sociological Review 40: 37–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 1988. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blalock, Hurbert M. Jr. 1961. Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental Research. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Blalock, Hurbert M. Jr. 1971. Causal Models in the Social Sciences. New York: Aldine/Atherton.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry, and Johnston, Richard. 1987. “What's the Primary Message: Horse Race or Issue Journalism.” In Media and Momentum, eds. Orren, Gary R. and Polsby, Nelson W. Chatham, NJ, pp. 127–186.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A., and Page, Benjamin I. 1972. “The Assessment of Policy Voting.” American Political Science Review 66: 450–458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A., et al. 1969. “Vietnam, the Urban Crisis and the 1968 Election.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E. 1976. The American Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, James, and Garand, James. 2000. Before the Vote: Forecasting the 1996 American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1962. “Information Flow and Stability of Partisan Attitudes.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26: 578–599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In Ideology and Discontent, ed. Apter, David. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Davis, James A. 1985. The Logic of Causal Order. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Geer, John. 1988. “What Do Open-Ended Questions Measure?” Public Opinion Quarterly 52: 365–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Donald P., and Palmquist, Bradley. 1990. “Of Artifacts and Partisan Instability.” American Journal of Political Science 34: 872–902.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, John E. 1975. “Issues, Parties and Presidential Votes.” American Journal of Political Science 19: 167–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent, and Markus, Gregory B. 1984. “Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul: Results from the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study.” American Political Science Review 78: 1000–1018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent, and Niemi, Richard G. 1981. Generations and Politics: A Panel Study of Young Adults and Their Parents. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kendall, Patricia L., and Lazarsfeld, Paul F. 1950. “Problems of Survey Analysis.” In Continuities in Social Research: Studies in the Scope and Method of “The American Soldier,” eds. Merton, R. K. and Lazarsfeld, P. P. Glencoe, IL: Free Press, pp. 148–154.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Merrill Shanks, J. 1982. “Policy Directions and Presidential Leadership: Alternative Interpretations of the 1980 Presidential Election.” British Journal of Political Science 12: 299–356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Merrill Shanks, J. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Rabinowitz, George, and MacDonald, Elaine Stuart. 1989. “A Directional Theory of Issue Voting.” American Political Science Review 83: 93–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenberg, Morris. 1968. The Logic of Survey Analysis. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Shanks, J. Merill, and Miller, Warren E. 1990. “Policy Direction and Performance Evaluation: Complementary Explanation of the Reagan Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 20: 143–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, J. Merrill, and Miller, Warren E. 1991. “Partisanship, Policy and Performance: The Reagan Legacy in the 1988 Election.” British Journal of Political Science 21: 129–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teixiera, Ruy. 1984. Why Americans Don't Vote. Westwood: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Wright, Sewall. 1921. “Correlation and Causation.” Journal of Agricultural Research 20: 557–585.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinions. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

References

Deaton, Angus. 1997. The Analysis of Household Surveys. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, David A. 1985. “Statistics and the Scientific Method.” In Cohort Analysis in Social Research, eds. William, O. Mason, M. and Fienberg, Stephen E. New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 343–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Gerald H. 1986. “Political Science as Science.” In Political Science: The Science of Politics, ed. Weisberg, Herbert F. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association, pp. 11–23.Google Scholar
Manski, Charles F. 1995. Identification Problems in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar