Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T06:54:20.383Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Revealing Preferences: Empirical Estimation of a Crisis Bargaining Game with Incomplete Information

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Jeffrey B. Lewis  and
Kenneth A. Schultz
Jeffrey B. Lewis
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095. e-mail: [email protected]
Kenneth A. Schultz
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095. e-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We develop an empirical estimator directly from an extensive-form crisis bargaining game with incomplete information and discuss its features and limitations. The estimator makes it possible to draw inferences about states' payoffs from observational data on crisis outcomes while remaining faithful to the theorized strategic and informational structure. We compare this estimator to one based on a symmetric information version of the same game, using the quantal response equilibrium proposed in this context by Signorino (1999, American Political Science Review 93:279–298). We then address issues of identification that arise in trying to learn about actors' utilities by observing their play of a strategic game. In general, a number of identifying restrictions are needed in order to pin down the distribution of payoffs and the effects of covariates on those payoffs.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 11 , Issue 4: Special Issue on Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models , Autumn 2003 , pp. 345 - 367
Copyright
Copyright © Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association 2003 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baumol, W. J. 1958. “The Cardinal Utility that is Ordinal.” Economic Journal 68:665–672.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brecher, Michael, and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 1997. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994a. “Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38:236–269.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994b. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88:577–592.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49:379–414.Google Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. “Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46:175–200.Google Scholar
Kooreman, Peter. 1994. “Estimation of Econometric Models of Some Discrete Games.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 9:255–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Jeffrey B., and Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. “Limitations to the Direct Testing of Extensive Form Crisis Bargaining Games.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
McKelvey, Richard A., and Palfrey, Thomas R. 1998. “Quantal Response Equilibria for Extensive Form Games.” Experimental Economics 1:9–41.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1985. “A Continuous Outcome Expected Utility Theory of War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 29:473–502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 33:941–972.Google Scholar
Partell, Peter J., and Palmer, Glenn. 1999. “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon's Model of Dispute Outcomes.” International Studies Quarterly 43:389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rothenberg, Thomas J. 1971. “Identification in Parametric Models.” Econometrica, 39:577–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sartori, Anne. 1998. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Ph.D. dissertation. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1999. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” International Organization 52:233–266.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 1999. “Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 93:279–298.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 2003. “Structure and Uncertainty in Discrete Choice Models.” Political Analysis 11:316–344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40:16–40.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92:623–638.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1999. “Testing Theories of Strategic Choice: The Example of Crisis Escalation.” American Journal of Political Science 43:1254–1283.Google Scholar