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The Essential Role of Statistical Inference in Evaluating Electoral Systems: A Response to DeFord et al.

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 December 2021

Jonathan N. Katz Open the ORCID record for Jonathan N. Katz [Opens in a new window] ,
Gary King Open the ORCID record for Gary King [Opens in a new window]  and
Elizabeth Rosenblatt Open the ORCID record for Elizabeth Rosenblatt [Opens in a new window]
Jonathan N. Katz
Affiliation:
Kay Sugahara Professor of Social Sciences and Statistics, California Institute of Technology, DHSS 228-77, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA. Email: [email protected], URL: jkatz.caltech.edu
Gary King*
Affiliation:
Albert J. Weatherhead III University Professor, Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. Email: [email protected], URL: GaryKing.org
Elizabeth Rosenblatt
Affiliation:
Post-BA Affiliate, Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA. Email: [email protected], URL: elizabethrosenblatt.com
*
Corresponding author Gary King
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Abstract

Katz, King, and Rosenblatt (2020, American Political Science Review 114, 164–178) introduces a theoretical framework for understanding redistricting and electoral systems, built on basic statistical and social science principles of inference. DeFord et al. (2021, Political Analysis, this issue) instead focuses solely on descriptive measures, which lead to the problems identified in our article. In this article, we illustrate the essential role of these basic principles and then offer statistical, mathematical, and substantive corrections required to apply DeFord et al.’s calculations to social science questions of interest, while also showing how to easily resolve all claimed paradoxes and problems. We are grateful to the authors for their interest in our work and for this opportunity to clarify these principles and our theoretical framework.

Keywords

redistrictingrepresentationfairnessstatistical inference
Type
Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 31 , Issue 3 , July 2023 , pp. 325 - 331
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology

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Footnotes

Edited by Lonna Atkeson

References

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