Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 April 2022
This paper argues that when used judiciously Bayes's law has a role to play in the evaluation of scientific hypotheses. Several examples are presented in which a rational response to evidence requires a judgement whether to apply Bayes's law or whether, for example, to redistribute prior probabilities. The paper concludes that reflection on Bayes's law illustrates how an adequate account of the rational evaluation of hypotheses requires an account of judgement—a point which several philosophers have noted despite few attempts to develop an adequate theory of judgement.
I want to thank C. A. Hooker and an anonymous Philosophy of Science referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.