Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-09T09:04:40.272Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Prediction in Selectionist Evolutionary Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

Selectionist evolutionary theory has often been faulted for not making novel predictions that are surprising, risky, and correct. I argue that it in fact exhibits the theoretical virtue of predictive capacity in addition to two other virtues: explanatory unification and model fitting. Two case studies show the predictive capacity of selectionist evolutionary theory: parallel evolutionary change in E. coli and the origin of eukaryotic cells through endosymbiosis.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Many thanks to Fermín Fulda, Larry Laudan, and Elliot Sober for illuminating and detailed conversations that helped improve this article immensely. I am also grateful to John Beatty, Kirk Fitzhugh, Peter Godfrey-Smith, Deborah Mayo, Amir Najmi, Richard Otte, Sarah Richardson, and David Williams for helpful feedback.

References

Achinstein, Peter (1994), “Explanation v. Prediction: Which Carries More Weight?”, in PSA 1994: Proceedings of the 1994 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 156164.Google Scholar
Adams, Keith L., and Palmer, Jeffrey D. (2003), “Evolution of Mitochondrial Gene Content: Gene Loss and Transfer to the Nucleus”, Evolution of Mitochondrial Gene Content: Gene Loss and Transfer to the Nucleus 29:380395.Google ScholarPubMed
Amundson, Ronald (2005), The Changing Role of the Embryo in Evolutionary Thought. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beatty, John (1980), “What's Wrong with the Received View of Evolutionary Biology?”, in PSA 1980: Proceedings of the 1980 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 397426.Google Scholar
Beatty, John (1997). “Why Do Biologists Argue like They Do?”, Philosophy of Science 64 (Proceedings): S432S443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beatty, John (2006). “Replaying Life's Tape”, Journal of Philosophy 103:336362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brush, Stephen G. (1994), “Dynamics of Theory Change: The Role of Predictions”, in PSA 1994: Proceedings of the 1994 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 133145.Google Scholar
Rudolf, Carnap (1945), “On Inductive Logic”, On Inductive Logic 12:7297.Google Scholar
Rudolf, Carnap (1950), Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Cavalier-Smith, Thomas (1975), “The Origin of Nuclei and of Eukaryotic Cells”, The Origin of Nuclei and of Eukaryotic Cells 256:463468.Google Scholar
Cooper, Tim F., Rozen, Daniel E., and Lenski, Richard E. (2003), “Parallel Changes in Gene Expression after 20,000 Generations of Evolution in Escherichia coli”, Parallel Changes in Gene Expression after 20,000 Generations of Evolution in Escherichia coli 100:10721077.Google Scholar
Cooper, Vaughn S., and Lenski, Richard E. (2000), “The Population Genetics of Ecological Specialization in Evolving E. coli Populations”, The Population Genetics of Ecological Specialization in Evolving E. coli Populations 407:736739.Google Scholar
Cooper, Vaughn S., Schneider, Dominique, Blot, Michel, and Lenski, Richard E. (2001), “Mechanisms Causing Rapid and Parallel Losses of Ribose Catabolism in Evolving Populations of Escherichia coli B”, Mechanisms Causing Rapid and Parallel Losses of Ribose Catabolism in Evolving Populations of Escherichia coli B 183:28342841.Google ScholarPubMed
Darwin, Charles R. ([1859] 2001), On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Darwin, Charles R. (1903), More Letters of Charles Darwin. Francis Darwin and A. C. Seward (eds.). 2 vols. London: Murray.Google Scholar
Doolittle, W. Ford, and Bapteste, Eric (2007), “Pattern Pluralism and the Tree of Life Hypothesis”, Pattern Pluralism and the Tree of Life Hypothesis 104:20432049.Google ScholarPubMed
Forster, Malcolm, and Sober, Elliot (1994), “How to Tell When Simpler, More Unified, or Less Ad Hoc Theories Will Provide More Accurate Predictions”, How to Tell When Simpler, More Unified, or Less Ad Hoc Theories Will Provide More Accurate Predictions 45:135.Google Scholar
Friedman, Michael (1974), “Explanation and Scientific Understanding”, Explanation and Scientific Understanding 71:519.Google Scholar
Friedman, Michael (1981). “Theoretical Explanation”, in Healey, Richard (ed.), Reduction, Time, and Reality: Studies in the Philosophy of the Natural Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 116.Google Scholar
Gardner, Michael R. (1982), “Predicting Novel Facts”, Predicting Novel Facts 33:115.Google Scholar
Giere, Ronald N. (1983), “Testing Theoretical Hypotheses”, in Earman, John (ed.), Testing Scientific Theories: Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 10. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 269–80.Google Scholar
Godfrey-Smith, Peter (1994), “Of Nulls and Norms”, in PSA 1994: Proceedings of the 1994 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 280290.Google Scholar
Godfrey-Smith, Peter (2001), “Three Kinds of Adaptationism”, in Orzack, Steven H. and Sober, Elliot (eds.), Adaptationism and Optimality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 335357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, Stephen J., and Lewontin, Richard C. (1979), “The Spandrels of San Marco and the Panglossian Paradigm: A Critique of the Adaptationist Programme”, The Spandrels of San Marco and the Panglossian Paradigm: A Critique of the Adaptationist Programme 205:581598.Google Scholar
Gray, Michael W., Burger, Gertraud, and Lang, B. Franz (1999), “Mitochondrial Evolution”, Mitochondrial Evolution 283:14761481.Google ScholarPubMed
Hempel, Carl G. (1945), “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation”, Studies in the Logic of Confirmation 54:126, 97–121.Google Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. (1965), Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Hitchcock, Christopher, and Sober, Elliott (2004), “Prediction versus Accommodation and the Risk of Overfitting”, Prediction versus Accommodation and the Risk of Overfitting 55:134.Google Scholar
Hodge, Martin J. S. (1989), “Darwin's Theory and Darwin's Argument”, in Ruse, M. (ed.), What the Philosophy of Biology Is: Essays Dedicated to David Hull. Dordrecht: Kluwer, 163182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin (1988), “Accommodation, Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation Theory”, in PSA 1988: Proceedings of the 1988 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 381392.Google Scholar
Kitcher, Philip (1981), “Explanatory Unification”, Explanatory Unification 48:251281.Google Scholar
Kitcher, Philip (1989), “Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World”, in Salmon, Wesley C. and Kitcher, Philip (eds.), Scientific Explanation: Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 13. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 410505.Google Scholar
Knight, Robin D., Freeland, Stephen J., and Landweber, Laura F. (1999), “Selection, History and Chemistry: The Three Faces of the Genetic Code”, Selection, History and Chemistry: The Three Faces of the Genetic Code 24:241247.Google ScholarPubMed
Lakatos, Imre (1970), “Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes”, in Lakatos, I. and Musgrave, A. (eds.), Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 91195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laudan, Larry (1977), Progress and Its Problems: Towards a Theory of Scientific Growth. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Laudan, Larry (1981), “A Confutation of Convergent Realism”, A Confutation of Convergent Realism 48:1949.Google Scholar
Laudan, Larry (1990), Science and Relativism: Some Key Controversies in the Philosophy of Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lenski, Richard E. (2004), “Phenotypic and Genomic Evolution during a 20,000-Generation Experiment with the Bacterium Escherichia coli”, Phenotypic and Genomic Evolution during a 20,000-Generation Experiment with the Bacterium Escherichia coli 24:225265.Google Scholar
Lenski, Richard E., and Travisano, Michael (1994), “Dynamics of Adaptation and Diversification: A 10,000-Generation Experiment with Bacterial Populations”, Dynamics of Adaptation and Diversification: A 10,000-Generation Experiment with Bacterial Populations 91:68086814.Google ScholarPubMed
Lipton, Peter (2005), “Testing Hypotheses: Prediction and Prejudice”, Testing Hypotheses: Prediction and Prejudice 307:219221.Google ScholarPubMed
Lloyd, Elisabeth A. (1983), “The Nature of Darwin's Support for the Theory of Natural Selection”, The Nature of Darwin's Support for the Theory of Natural Selection 50:112129.Google Scholar
Lloyd, Elisabeth A. ([1988] 1994), The Structure and Confirmation of Evolutionary Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Margulis, Lynn (1970), Origin of Eukaryotic Cells. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Margulis, Lynn (1975), “Symbiotic Theory of the Origin of Eukaryotic Organelles: Criteria for Proof”, Symbiotic Theory of the Origin of Eukaryotic Organelles: Criteria for Proof 29:2138.Google Scholar
Margulis, Lynn (1976), “Genetic and Evolutionary Consequences of Symbiosis”, Genetic and Evolutionary Consequences of Symbiosis 39:277349.Google ScholarPubMed
Mayo, Deborah G. (1991), “Novel Evidence and Severe Tests”, Novel Evidence and Severe Tests 58:523552.Google Scholar
Mayo, Deborah G. (1994), “The New Experimentalism, Topical Hypotheses, and Learning from Error”, in PSA 1994: Proceedings of the 1994 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1. East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association, 270279.Google Scholar
Mayo, Deborah G. (1996), Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayo, Deborah G. (2008), “How to Discount Double-Counting When It Counts: Some Clarifications”, How to Discount Double-Counting When It Counts: Some Clarifications 59:857879.Google Scholar
Mayo, Deborah G., and Spanos, Aris (2006), “Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction”, Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction 57:323357.Google Scholar
Musgrave, Alan (1974), “Logical versus Historical Theories of Confirmation”, Logical versus Historical Theories of Confirmation 25:123.Google Scholar
Oliveira, Mariana C., and Bhattacharya, Debashish (2000), “Phylogeny of the Bangiophycidae (Rhodophyta) and the Secondary Endosymbiotic Origin of Algal Plastids”, Phylogeny of the Bangiophycidae (Rhodophyta) and the Secondary Endosymbiotic Origin of Algal Plastids 87:482492.Google ScholarPubMed
O’Malley, Maureen, and Dupré, John (2007), “Size Doesn’t Matter: Towards a More Inclusive Philosophy of Biology”, Size Doesn’t Matter: Towards a More Inclusive Philosophy of Biology 22:155191.Google Scholar
Pigliucci, Massimo (2002), “Are Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ‘Soft' Sciences?”, Are Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ‘Soft' Sciences? 39:8798.Google Scholar
Popper, Karl R. (1963), Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Popper, Karl R. (1974), “Autobiography of Karl Popper”, in Schilpp, P. A. (ed.), The Philosophy of Karl Popper, Vol. 1. LaSalle, IL: Open Court, 3181.Google Scholar
Putnam, Hilary (1981), “The ‘Corroboration’ of Theories”, in Hacking, Ian (ed.), Scientific Revolutions. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 6079.Google Scholar
Raff, Rudolf A., and Mahler, Henry (1972), “The Non-symbiotic Origin of Mitochondria”, The Non-symbiotic Origin of Mitochondria 177:575582.Google ScholarPubMed
Raff, Rudolf A., and Mahler, Henry (1975), “The Symbiont That Never Was: An Inquiry into the Evolutionary Origin of the Mitochondrion”, The Symbiont That Never Was: An Inquiry into the Evolutionary Origin of the Mitochondrion 29:4192.Google Scholar
Reijnders, Lucas (1975), “The Origin of Mitochondria”, The Origin of Mitochondria 5:167176.Google ScholarPubMed
Ruse, Michael (1979), The Darwinian Revolution. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Sapp, Jan (1994), Evolution by Association: A History of Symbiosis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Schuster, Stephen M., and Wade, Michael J. (2003), Mating Systems and Strategies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Segrè, Ayellet V., Murray, Andrew W., and Leu, Jun-Yi (2006), “High-Resolution Mutation Mapping Reveals Parallel Experimental Evolution in Yeast”, High-Resolution Mutation Mapping Reveals Parallel Experimental Evolution in Yeast 4 (8): e256. http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040256.Google ScholarPubMed
Shubin, Neil (2008), Your Inner Fish: A Journey into the 3.5-Billion-Year History of the Human Body. New York: Pantheon.Google Scholar
Smart, J. J. C. (1963), Philosophy and Scientific Realism. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Sober, Elliott (1994), From a Biological Point of View: Essays in Evolutionary Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sober, Elliott (1999), “Testability”, Testability 73:4776.Google Scholar
Sober, Elliott (2008), Evidence and Evolution: The Logic behind the Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sokal, Robert R., and Rohlf, James F. (1994), Biometry. New York: Freeman.Google Scholar
Taylor, F. J. R. (1976), “Autogenous Theories for the Origin of Eukaryotes”, Autogenous Theories for the Origin of Eukaryotes 25:377390.Google Scholar
Uzzell, Thomas, and Spolsky, Christina (1974), “Mitochondria and Plastids as Endosymbionts: A Revival of Special Creation?”, Mitochondria and Plastids as Endosymbionts: A Revival of Special Creation? 62:334343.Google ScholarPubMed
Van Fraassen, Bas C. (1980), The Scientific Image. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, Mary (1982), “The Importance of Prediction Testing in Evolutionary Biology”, The Importance of Prediction Testing in Evolutionary Biology 17:291306.Google Scholar
Wilson, Edward Osborn (1998), Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Winther, Rasmus Gr⊘nfeldt (2008), “Systemic Darwinism”, Systemic Darwinism 105 (33): 1183311838..Google ScholarPubMed
Woese, Carl R. (2000), “Interpreting the Universal Phylogenetic Tree”, Interpreting the Universal Phylogenetic Tree 97:83928396.Google ScholarPubMed
Worrall, John (1989), “Fresnel, Poisson and the White Spot: The Role of Successful Predictions in the Acceptance of Scientific Theories”, in Gooding, David, Pinch, Trevor, and Schaffer, Simon (eds.), The Uses of Experiment: Studies in the Natural Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 135157.Google Scholar
Worrall, John (2006), “Theory and Confirmation”, in Cheyne, C. and Worrall, J. (eds.), Reason and Reality: Conversations with Alan Musgrave. Dordrecht: Kluwer.Google Scholar
Yang, Dan, Oyaizu, Y., Oyaizu, H., Olsen, Gary J., and Woese, Carl R. (1985), “Mitochondrial Origins”, Mitochondrial Origins 82:44434447.Google ScholarPubMed
Zahar, Elie (1973), “Why Did Einstein's Programme Supersede Lorentz's?”, Why Did Einstein's Programme Supersede Lorentz's? 24:95123, 223–262.Google Scholar