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Opinion Polling and Election Predictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Robert Northcott
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Abstract

Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science. I examine the details of a prominent case, drawing two lessons of more general interest: (1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether successful prediction would be possible; instead, the crucial thing was selecting an effective methodology. (2) Which methodology? Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. The pursuit of explanations via general theory or causal mechanisms, by contrast, turned out to be precisely the wrong path—contrary to much recent philosophy of social science.

Type
Social Sciences and Policy
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 82 , Issue 5 , December 2015 , pp. 1260 - 1271
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

†

For useful feedback, I would like to thank Anna Alexandrova and audiences at the British Society for the Philosophy of Science, Birkbeck College, and the Philosophy of Science Association.

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