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Discussion: Howson and Franklin on Prediction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Patrick Maher
Patrick Maher*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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Abstract

Evidence for a hypothesis typically confirms the hypothesis more if the evidence was predicted than if it was accommodated. Or so I argued in previous papers, where I also developed an analysis of why this should be so. But this was all a mistake if Howson and Franklin (1991) are to be believed. In this paper, I show why they are not to be believed. I also identify a grain of truth that may have been dimly grasped by those Bayesians who deny the confirmatory value of prediction.

Type
Discussion
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 60 , Issue 2 , June 1993 , pp. 329 - 340
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1993

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Footnotes

†

Send reprint requests to the author, Department of Philosophy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 105 Gregory Hall, 810 South Wright Street, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.

References

Horwich, P. (1982), Probability and Evidence. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Howson, C. and Franklin, A. (1991), “Maher, Mendeleev and Bayesianism”, Philosophy of Science 58: 574–585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. (1921), A Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Maher, P. (1988), “Prediction, Accommodation, and the Logic of Discovery”, in Fine, A. and Leplin, J. (eds.), PSA 1988, vol. 1. East Lansing: Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 273–285.Google Scholar
Maher, P. (1990), “How Prediction Enhances Confirmation”, in Dunn, J. M. and Gupta, A., (eds.), J. M. Dunn and A. Gupta, Dordrecht: Kluwer, pp. 327–343.Google Scholar