Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T09:42:30.542Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Rescuing Reflection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

In this article, I suggest an argument that seems to show a conflict between the reflection principle and conditionalization. In particular, I show that when the reflection principle is formulated in a standard way, the principle conflicts with Jeffrey conditionalization. And it is argued that the source of the conflict resides in an ambiguity of the standard formulation. Furthermore, I attempt to rescue the principle using Bayes factors. That is, I suggest a new formulation of the principle so as to avoid the conflict.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I would like to thank the anonymous referees for their invaluable suggestions. And I owe special debts to Inkyo Chung and Alan Hájek for their detailed and insightful comments.

References

Field, Hartry. 1978. “A Note on Jeffrey Conditionalization.” Philosophy of Science 45:361–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin, and Urbach, Peter. 2006. Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach. 2nd ed. Chicago: Open Court.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard. 2002. Subjective Probability: The Real Thing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Maher, Patrick. 1993. Betting on Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas. 1984. “Belief and the Will.” Journal of Philosophy 8 (1): 235–56.Google Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas. 1995. “Belief and the Problem of Ulysses and the Sirens.” Philosophical Studies 77:737.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, Carl. 2000. “Old Evidence and New Explanation III.” Philosophy of Science 68 (Proceedings): S165S175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, Carl. 2002. “Probability Kinematics and Commutativity.” Philosophy of Science 69:266–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, Carl. 2003. “Commuting Probability Revisions: The Uniformity Rule.” Erkenntnis 59:349–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisberg, Jonathan. 2007. “Conditionalization, Reflection, and Self-Knowledge.” Philosophical Studies 135:179–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar