Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T04:21:34.373Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

On the Metaphysics of Probabilistic Causation: Lessons from Social Epidemiology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

I argue that the orthodox account of probabilistic causation, on which probabilistic causes determine the probability of their effects, is inconsistent with certain ontological assumptions implicit in scientific practice. In particular, scientists recognize the possibility that properties of populations can cause the behavior of members of the populations. Such emergent population-level causation is metaphysically impossible on the orthodoxy.

Type
Laws and Causation
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Brandon, Robert (1990), Adaptation and Environment. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cartwright, Nancy (1989a), Nature's Capacities and Their Measurement. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Cartwright, Nancy (1989b), “Capacities and Abstractions”, in Kitcher, P. and Salmon, W. (eds.), Scientific Explanation, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol. 8. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Cheng, Patricia (1997), “From Covariation to Causation: A Causal Power Theory”, From Covariation to Causation: A Causal Power Theory 104:367405.Google Scholar
Cheng, Patricia (2000), “Causality in the Mind: Estimating Contextual and Conjunctive Causal Power”, in Keil, F. and Wilson, R. (eds.), Explanation and Cognition. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Fiscella, Kevin and Franks, Peter (1997), “Poverty or Income Inequality as a Predictor of Mortality”, Poverty or Income Inequality as a Predictor of Mortality 314:17241728.Google ScholarPubMed
Gravelle, Hugh (1998), “How Much of a Relation Between Population Mortality and Unequal Distribution of Income is a Statistical Artefact?”, How Much of a Relation Between Population Mortality and Unequal Distribution of Income is a Statistical Artefact? 316:382385.Google ScholarPubMed
Glymour, Bruce (1998), “Contrastive, Non-Probabilistic Statistical Explanation”, Contrastive, Non-Probabilistic Statistical Explanation 65:448471.Google Scholar
Housman, Dan (1998), Causal Asymmetries. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Housman, Dan, and Woodward, James (1999), “Independence, Invariance, and the Causal Markov Condition”, Independence, Invariance, and the Causal Markov Condition 50:521583.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Paul (1989), The Chances of Explanation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Judge, Ken (1995), “Income Distribution and Life Expectancy: A Critical Appraisal”, Income Distribution and Life Expectancy: A Critical Appraisal 311:12821285.Google ScholarPubMed
Kawachi, Ichiro, and Kennedy, Bruce (1997), “The Relationship of Income Inequality to Mortality: Does the Choice of Indicator Matter?”, The Relationship of Income Inequality to Mortality: Does the Choice of Indicator Matter? 45:11211127.Google ScholarPubMed
Kawachi, Kennedy, and , Wilkinson (1999), The Society and Population Health Reader, Vol. 1, Income Inequality and Health. New York: The New Press.Google Scholar
Lloyd, Elisabeth (1988), The Structure and Confirmation of Evolutionary Theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lloyd, Elisabeth (1992), “Unit of Selection”, in Fox-Keller, E. and Lloyd, E., (eds.), Keywords in Evolutionary Biology. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 334340.Google Scholar
Papineau, David (1985), “Probabilities and Causes”, Probabilities and Causes 82:5774.Google Scholar
Papineau, David (1989), “Pure Mixed and Spurious Probabilities and Their Significance for a Reductionist Theory of Causation”, in Kitcher, P. and Salmon, W. (eds.), Scientific Explanation, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol. 13. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Salmon, Wesley (1984), Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sober, Elliott (1984), The Nature of Selection. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Suppes, Patrick (1970), A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Fraassen, van (1980), The Scientific Image. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar