Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T02:04:43.248Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Old Evidence in the Development of Quantum Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Molly Kao
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this article, I evaluate Hartmann and Fitelson’s solution to the Bayesian problem of old evidence by applying it to an early stage in the development of quantum theory. I argue that this case study suggests that whether old evidence is anomalous affects its support for a hypothesis. I introduce and defend two formal assumptions to accommodate this idea. This analysis not only explicates an important historical example, but it also shows that the given solution captures the intuitive importance of “surprising” evidence that has previously been problematic in the context of old evidence.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 85 , Issue 1 , January 2018 , pp. 126 - 143
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†.

I am grateful to Samuel Fletcher, Richard Dawid, and Yann Benétreau-Dupin for helpful comments and discussions on earlier versions of this article. I would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful suggestions.

References

Bohr, Niels. 1913. “On the Constitution of Atoms and Molecules.” Pt. 1. Philosophical Magazine 26:1–25.Google Scholar
Christensen, David. 1999. “Measuring Confirmation.” Journal of Philosophy 96 (9): 437–61..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eells, Ellery. 1990. “Bayesian Problems of Old Evidence.” In Scientific Theories, ed. Savage, C. Wade, 205–23. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Einstein, Albert. 1905/1905. “Ueber einen die Erzeugung und Verwandlung des Lichtes betreffenden heuristischen Gesichtspunkt.” In The Old Quantum Theory, trans. ter Haar, D., 91–107. Oxford: Pergamon. Originally published in Annalen der Physik 17:132–48.Google Scholar
ter Haar, D., 91–107 1907. “Die Plancksche Theorie der Strahlung und die Theorie der spezifischen Waerme.” Annalen der Physik 22:180–90.Google Scholar
ter Haar, D., 91–107 1907/1907. “Planck’s Theory of Radiation and the Theory of Specific Heat.” In The Collected Papers of Albert Einstein, Vol. 2, The Swiss Years: Writings, 1900–1909, trans. Beck, Anna, 214–24. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Garber, Daniel. 1983. “Old Evidence and Logical Omniscience in Bayesian Confirmation Theory.” In Testing Scientific Theories: Midwest Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 10, ed. John Earman, 99–131. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Hartmann, Stephan, and Fitelson, Branden. 2015. “A New Garber-Style Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence.” Philosophy of Science 82 (4): 712–17..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin. 1991. “The ‘Old Evidence’ Problem.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (4): 547–55..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jammer, Max. 1966. The Conceptual Development of Quantum Mechanics. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard C. 1983. “Bayesianism with a Human Face.” In Testing Scientific Theories: Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 10, ed. John Earman, 133–56. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Klein, Martin J. 1965. “Einstein, Specific Heats, and the Early Quantum Theory.” Science 148 (3667): 173–80..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nernst, Walther. 1910. “Sur les chaleurs spécifiques aux basses températures et le développement de la thermodynamique.” Journal de Physique Théorique et Appliquée 9:721–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nernst, Walther 1911. “Zur Theorie der spezifischen Wärme und über die Anwendung der Lehre von den Energiequanten auf physikalisch-chemische Fragen überhaupt.” Zeitschrift für Elektrochemie 17:265–75.Google Scholar
Thomson, William. 1901. “Nineteenth Century Clouds over the Dynamical Theory of Heat and Light.” In Baltimore Lectures on Molecular Dynamics and the Wave Theory of Light, 486–527. London: Clay.Google Scholar