Hostname: page-component-669899f699-2mbcq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-28T15:35:11.006Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Diachronic Coherence and Radical Probabilism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Brian Skyrms
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The question of diachronic coherence, coherence of degrees of belief across time, is investigated within the context of Richard Jeffrey's radical probabilism. Diachronic coherence is taken as fundamental, and coherence results for degrees of belief at a single time, such as additivity, are recovered only with additional assumptions. Additivity of probabilities of probabilities is seen to be less problematic than additivity of first-order probabilities. Without any assumed model of belief change, diachronic coherence applied to higher-order degrees of belief yields the martingale property.

Type
In Memory of Richard Jeffrey
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 73 , Issue 5: Proceedings of the 2004 Biennial Meeting of The Philosophy of Science Association. Part II: Symposia Papers. Edited by Miriam Solomon , December 2006 , pp. 959 - 968
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Goldstein, Michael (1983), “The Prevision of a Prevision,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:817–819.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Good, Irving John (1981), “The Weight of Evidence Provided from an Uncertain Testimony or from an Uncertain Event,” Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 13:56–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (1957), Contributions to the Theory of Inductive Probability. PhD dissertation, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (1965), The Logic of Decision. New York: McGraw-Hill; 3rd rev. ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (1968), “Probable Knowledge,” in Lakatos, I. (ed.), The Problem of Inductive Logic. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Lane, David A., and Sudderth, William (1984), “Coherent Predictive Inference,” Sankhya, ser. A, 46:166–185.Google Scholar
Lane, David A., and Sudderth, William (1985), “Coherent Predictions Are Strategic,” Annals of Statistics 13:1244–1248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Clarence Irving (1946), An Analysis of Knowledge and Valuation. LaSalle, IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
Purves, Roger, and Sudderth, William (1976), “Some Finitely Additive Probability,” Annals of Probability 4:259–276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shin, Hyun Song (1992), “Review of The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation,” Economics and Philosophy 8:176–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1980), “Higher Order Degrees of Belief,” in Mellor, D. H. (ed.), Prospects for Pragmatism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 109–138.Google Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1987), “Dynamic Coherence and Probability Kinematics,” Philosophy of Science 54:1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1990), The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1996), “The Structure of Radical Probabilism,” Erkenntnis 45:285–297.Google Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas (1984), “Belief and the Will,” Journal of Philosophy 81:235–256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zabell, Sandy (2002), “It All Adds Up: The Dynamic Coherence of Radical Probabilism,” Philosophy of Science 69 (Proceedings): S98–S103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar