Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T00:14:54.960Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Conditional Probabilities and Probabilities Given Knowledge of a Condition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Paul Weirich
Paul Weirich*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy University of Rochester
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The conditional probability of h given e is commonly claimed to be equal to the probability that h would have if e were learned. Here I contend that this general claim about conditional probabilities is false. I present a counter-example that involves probabilities of probabilities, a second that involves probabilities of possible future actions, and a third that involves probabilities of indicative conditionals. In addition, I briefly defend these counter-examples against charges that the probabilities they involve are illegitimate.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 50 , Issue 1 , March 1983 , pp. 82 - 95
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 by the Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

I am grateful for helpful comments from Richard Feldman, Teddy Seidenfeld, and William Harper.

References

Carnap, Rudolf (1945), “On Inductive Logic”, Philosophy of Science, vol. 12: 72–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnap, Rudolf (1971), “Inductive Logic and Rational Decisions”, Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
deFinetti, Bruno (1974), Theory of Probability. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Feller, William (1968), An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Gibbard, Allan (1981), “Two Recent Theories of Conditionals”, Ifs, Harper, William L., Stalnaker, Robert, and Pearce, Glenn (eds.). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.Google Scholar
Harper, William L. (1981), “A Sketch of Some Recent Developments in the Theory of Conditionals”, Ifs.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoel, Paul G., Port, , Sidney, C., and Stone, Charles J. (1971), Introduction to Probability Theory. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard C. (1965), The Logic of Decision. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Kripke, Saul (1975), “Outline of a Theory of Truth”, The Journal of Philosophy, vol. 74: 690–706.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kyburg, Henry E. Jr. (1970), Probability and Inductive Logic. Toronto: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kyburg, Henry E. (1974), The Foundations of Statistical Inference. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.Google Scholar
Levi, Isaac (1980), The Enterprise of Knowledge. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Lewis, David (1976), “Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities”, Philosophical Review, vol. 85: 297–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, Leonard J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Shackle, G. L. S. (1979), Imagination and the Nature of Choice. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.Google Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1980), “Higher Order Degrees of Belief”, Prospects for Pragmatism, ed. Mellor, D. H. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sobel, Jordan Howard (1979), Probability, Chance, and Choice. Toronto. Mimeograph.Google Scholar
Sobel, Jordan Howard (1982), “Conditional Probabilities”. Manuscript.Google Scholar
Stalnaker, Robert (1970), “Probability and Conditionals”, Philosophy of Science, vol. 37: 64–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stalnaker, Robert (1976), “Letter by Stalnaker to van Fraassen” in “Probabilities of Conditionals”, Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, vol. I eds. W. L. Harper and C. A. Hooker. Boston: Reidel.Google Scholar
Taylor, Richard (1964), “Deliberation and Foreknowledge”, American Philosophical Quarterly, vol. 1: 73–80.Google Scholar
Thalberg, Irving (1980), “Fatalism Toward Past and Future”, Time and Cause, ed. Inwagen, Peter van. Boston: Reidel.Google Scholar
Van Fraassen, Bas C. (1976), “Probabilities of Conditionals”, Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weirich, Paul (1979), “Conditionalization and Evidence”, The Journal of Critical Analysis, vol. VIII: 15–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar