Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T12:25:05.408Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Bayesian Statistics in Radiocarbon Calibration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Daniel Steel
Daniel Steel*
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
*
†Send requests for reprints to the author, 1017 Cathedral of Learning, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260; email: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Critics of Bayesianism often assert that scientists are not Bayesians. The widespread use of Bayesian statistics in the field of radiocarbon calibration is discussed in relation to this charge. This case study illustrates the willingness of scientists to use Bayesian statistics when the approach offers some advantage, while continuing to use orthodox methods in other contexts. The case of radiocarbon calibration, therefore, suggests a picture of statistical practice in science as eclectic and pragmatic rather than rigidly adhering to any one theoretical position.

Type
Bayesian Methodology
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 68 , Issue S3: No. 3 Supplement: Proceedings of the 2000 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. Part I: Contributed Papers Sep., 2001 , 2001 , pp. S153 - S164
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

‡

I would like to thank Clark Glymour, Deborah Mayo, John Norton, and John Earman for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this essay.

References

Batt, Cathy (1997), “Book Review: Bayesian Approach to Interpreting Archaeological Data”, Antiquity 71:765–767.10.1017/S0003598X00085550CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowman, S. G. E. and Leese, M. N. (1995), “Radiocarbon Calibration: Current Issues”, American Journal of Archaeology 99:102–105.Google Scholar
Buck, Caitlin, Cavanagh, William, and Litton, Clifford (1996), Bayesian Approach to Interpreting Archaeological Data. Chichester, England: Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Buck, Caitlin, Kenworthy, J., Litton, Clifford, and Smith, A. F. M. (1991), “Combining archaeological and radiocarbon information: a Bayesian approach to calibration”, Antiquity 65:808–821.10.1017/S0003598X00080534CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Bernard and James, Loy (1996), Humankind Emerging, 7th ed. New York: Harper Collins.Google Scholar
Casella, George and George, Edward (1992), “Explaining the Gibbs Sampler”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 46:167–174.Google Scholar
Christen, J., Clymo, R., and Litton, Clifford (1995), “A Bayesian Approach to the Use of 14C Dates in the Estimation of the Age of Peat”, Radiocarbon 37:431–442.10.1017/S0033822200030915CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giere, R. (1997), “Scientific Inference: Two Points of View”, Philosophy of Science 64 (Proceedings): S180–S184.10.1086/392598CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goslar, Tomasz and Madry, Wieslaw (1998), “Using the Bayesian Method to Study the Precision of Dating by Wiggle-Matching”, Radiocarbon 40:551–560.10.1017/S0033822200018415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellman, Geoffrey (1997), “Responses to Maher, and to Kelly, Schulte, and Juhl”, Philosophy of Science 64:317–322.10.1086/392554CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin and Urbach, Peter (1993), Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach. La Salle, IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
Knox, F. B. and McFadgen, B. G. (1997), “Least-Squares Fitting a Smooth Curve to Radiocarbon Calibration Data”, Radiocarbon 39:193–204.10.1017/S0033822200052000CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindgren, Bernard W. (1993), Statistical Theory, 4th ed. London: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Lupton, Robert (1993), Statistics in Theory and Practice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9780691213194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malakoff, David (1999), “Bayes Offers a ‘New’ Way to Make Sense of Numbers”, Science 286:1460–1464.10.1126/science.286.5444.1460CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mayo, Deborah (1996), Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226511993.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayo, Deborah (1997), “Response to Howson and Laudan”, Philosophy of Science 64:323–360.10.1086/392555CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naylor, J. C. and Smith, A. F. M. (1988), “An Archaeological Inference Problem,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 83:588–595.Google Scholar
Orton, Clive (1983), “A statistical technique for integrating 14C dates with other forms of dating evidence”, in Haigh, J.G.B. (ed.), Computer applications and quantitative methods in archaeology. Bradford: University of Bradford Press, 115–124.Google Scholar
Pazdur, Mieczslaw and Michczynska, Danuta (1989), “Improvement of the procedure for probabilistic calibration of radiocarbon dates”, Radiocarbon 31:824–832.10.1017/S0033822200012443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsey, Christopher B. (1995), “Radiocarbon Calibration and Analysis of Stratigraphy: The OxCal Program”, Radiocarbon 37:425–430.10.1017/S0033822200030903CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsey, Christopher B. (1998), “Probability and Dating”, Radiocarbon 40:461–474.10.1017/S0033822200018348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reece, Richard (1994), “Are Bayesian statistics useful to archaeological reasoning?”, Antiquity 68:848–850.10.1017/S0003598X00047578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scott, Marian (1997), “Book Review: Bayesian Approach to Interpreteing Archaeological Data”, Radiocarbon 39: 219.10.1017/S0033822200052024CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuiver, Minze, Reimer, Paula, Bard, Eduoard, Beck, J. Warren, Burr, G. S., Hughen, Konrad, Kromer, Bernd, McCormac, Gerry, van der Plicht, Johannes, and Spunk, Marco (1998), “INTCAL98 Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 24,000–0 cal bp”, Radiocarbon 40:1041–1084.10.1017/S0033822200019123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuiver, Minze and Pearson, Gordon (1992), “Calibration of the Radiocarbon Time Scale, 2500–5000 bc”, in Taylor, R. E., Long, A., and Kra, R. S. (eds.). Radiocarbon After Four Decades: An Interdisciplinary Perspective. New York: Springer-Verlag, 19–33.10.1007/978-1-4757-4249-7_3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuiver, Minze and Pearson, Gordon (1993), “High-precision bidecadal calibration of the radiocarbon time scale, ad 1950–500 bc and 2500–6000 bc”, Radiocarbon 35:1–23.10.1017/S0033822200013783CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuiver, Minze and Reimer, Paula (1986), “A computer program for radiocarbon age calibration”, Radiocarbon 28:1022–1030.10.1017/S0033822200060276CrossRefGoogle Scholar