Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T11:44:42.673Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

When Does Backsliding Lead to Breakdown? Uncertainty and Opposition Strategies in Democracies at Risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 December 2020

Matthew R. Cleary Open the ORCID record for Matthew R. Cleary [Opens in a new window]  and
Aykut Öztürk Open the ORCID record for Aykut Öztürk [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In recent decades, prominent national leaders like Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez gained power through democratic institutions, only to undermine those institutions once in office as part of a broader effort to consolidate authoritarian power. Yet attempts at “executive aggrandizement” have failed in other countries, with varying consequences for democratic institutions. We develop an agency-based perspective to enhance the understanding of aggrandizement and to explain when it results in democratic breakdown. Relying on comparative case studies of five countries—Bolivia, Ecuador, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuela—our analysis suggests that the contingent decisions of opposition actors during the process of aggrandizement have a significant effect on regime outcomes. Irregular opposition attempts to remove incumbents from office, which are especially likely after electoral defeats, contribute to democratic breakdown. More moderate responses to aggrandizement, on the other hand, help the opposition actors to buy time until the next election, hence offering the possibility for democratic survival.

Type
Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 205 - 221
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section

The authors greatly benefited from the constructive feedback of many friends and colleagues, including Gustavo Flores-Macías, Dimitar Gueorguiev, Juan Fernando Ibarra del Cueto, Matthew Ingram, Melis G. Laebens, Dan McDowell, Tom Perreault, Heather Sullivan, Brian Taylor, María Laura Veramendi García, Kari Waters, and Karleen West; participants of the Political Science Research Workshop at Syracuse University; four anonymous reviewers; and the editor of Perspectives on Politics. We also thank the Department of Political Science at Syracuse University for the research grant that made this project possible.

References

Abramowitz, Morton. 2008. “Turkey’s Judicial Coup D’État.” Newsweek, April 5. (https://www.newsweek.com/turkeys-judicial-coup-detat-85909).Google Scholar
Agence France Presse. 2015. “‘¡Ecuador no es Venezuela’! gritan miles de opositores en protesta contra Correa.” June 26.Google Scholar
Aytaç, S. Erdem, Çarkoğlu, Ali, and Yıldırım, Kerem. 2017. “Taking Sides: Determinants of Support for a Presidential System in Turkey.” South European Society and Politics 22(1): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balbay, Mustafa. 2003. May 23. [Genç subaylar tedirgin (in Turkish)], Cumhuriyet.Google Scholar
Bali, Aslı. 2010. “Unpacking Turkey’s ‘Court-Packing’ Referendum.” Middle East Report Online 5. (https://merip.org/2010/11/unpacking-turkeys-court-packing-referendum/).Google Scholar
Berkan, İsmet. 2011. [Asker bize iktidari verir mi? (in Turkish)]. Istanbul: Everest Press.Google Scholar
Bermeo, Nancy. 2016. “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy 27(1): 5–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, Michael. 2015. “Chronic Instability and the Limits of Path Dependence.” Perspectives on Politics 13(4): 976–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowen, James D. 2014. “The Right and Nonparty Forms of Representation and Participation: Bolivia and Ecuador Compared.” In The Resilience of the Latin American Right, ed. Luna, Juan Pablo and Kaltwasser, Cristóbal Rovira, 94–116. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press,Google Scholar
Cannon, Barry. 2014. “As Clear as MUD: Characteristics, Objectives, and Strategies of the Opposition in Bolivarian Venezuela.” Latin American Politics and Society 56(4): 49–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Capoccia, Giovanni. 2005. Defending Democracy: Reactions to Extremism in Interwar Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine M. 2008. "Ecuador: Correa's Plebiscitary Presidency." Journal of Democracy 19(2): 46–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine M. 2016. “Delegative Democracy Revisited: Ecuador Under Correa.” Journal of Democracy 27(3): 109–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine M. 2017. “Contra-Associational Strategy in a Hybrid Regime: Ecuador, 2007–2015.” Bulletin of Latin American Research 36(4): 509–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Connors, Michael K. 2008. “Article of Faith: The Failure of Royal Liberalism in Thailand.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 38(1): 143–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Connors, Michael K., and Hewison, Kevin. 2008. “Introduction: Thailand and the ‘Good Coup’.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 38(1): 1–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corrales, Javier. 2018. Fixing Democracy: Why Constitutional Change Often Fails to Enhance Democracy in Latin America. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De la Torre, Carlos, and Lemos, Andrés Ortiz. 2016. “Populist Polarization and the Slow Death of Democracy in Ecuador.” Democratization 23(2): 221–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorge, Derpic. 2019. October 19. “Bolivia’s 2019 Presidential Election: The End of Hegemony for Evo Morales?” Blogs.lse.ac.uk. (https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2019/10/18/bolivias-2019-presidential-election-the-end-of-hegemony-for-evo-morales/).Google Scholar
Vladimir, Díaz Cuellar. 2019. “Réquiem Para El ‘Proceso De Cambio’.” Control Ciudadano: Boletín De Seguimiento a Políticas Públicas. No. 32. Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Laboral y Agrario (CEDLA).Google Scholar
El Universo . 2015a. “Jaime Nebot: Rafael Correa quiere aprovechar venida del papa para decir a ciudadanos que ya no salgan a las calles.” June 17. https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2015/06/17/nota/4968406/jaime-nebot-dice-que-marcha-guayaquil-es-contra-politicaGoogle Scholar
El Universo . 2015b. “Jaime Nebot: Nadie quiere que Correa se vaya, sino que rectifique.” June 15. https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2015/06/15/nota/4965904/jaime-nebot-nadie-quiere-que-correa-se-vaya-sino-que-rectifiqueGoogle Scholar
El Universo . 2015c, “Jaime Nebot: Guayaquileño y ecuatoriano: nunca te des por vencido, ni aun vencido.” June 25. https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2015/06/25/nota/4984383/jaime-nebot-guayaquileno-ecuatoriano-nunca-te-des-vencido-ni-aun.Google Scholar
Ersoy, Ahmet, Górny, Maciej, and Kechriotis, Vangelis, eds. 2010. Modernism: The Creation of Nation-States. Budapest and New York: Central European University Press.Google Scholar
Esen, Berk, and Gumuscu, Sebnem. 2016. “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey.” Third World Quarterly 37(9): 1581–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferrara, Federico. 2015. The Political Development of Modern Thailand. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamboa, Laura. 2017. “Opposition at the Margins: Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy in Colombia and Venezuela.” Comparative Politics 49(4): 457–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, Alexander, and Bennett, Andrew. 2005. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gotev, Georgi. 2016. “Erdoğan Says Coup Was ‘Gift from God’ to Reshape Country, Punish Enemies.” Euractive.com, July 18.(https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/erdogan-says-coup-was-gift-from-god-to-re-shape-country-punish-enemies/).Google Scholar
Gunter, Michael M. 2012. “Turkey: The Politics of a New Democratic Constitution.” Middle East Policy 19(1). (https://mepc.org/turkey-politics-new-democratic-constitution).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helmke, Gretchen. 2017. Institutions on the Edge: The Oorigins and Consequences of Inter-Branch Crises in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hewison, Kevin. 2010. “Thaksin Shinawatra and the Reshaping of Thai politics.” Contemporary Politics 16(2): 119–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. 2012. “Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010.” South European Society and Politics 17(1): 1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaufman, Robert, and Haggard, Stephan. 2019. “Democratic Decline in the United States: What Can We Learn from Middle-Income Backsliding?” Perspectives on Politics 17(2): 417–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinney, Drew Holland. 2019. “Politicians at Arms: Civilian Recruitment of Soldiers for Middle East Coups.” Armed Forces & Society 45(4): 681–701.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitirianglarp, Kengkij, and Hewison, Kevin. 2009. “Social Movements and Political Opposition in Contemporary Thailand.” Pacific Review 22(4): 451–577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laebens, Melis G., and Öztürk, Aykut. 2020. “Partisanship and Autocratization: Polarization, Power Asymmetry and Partisan Social Identities in Turkey.” Comparative Political Studies. doi: 10.1177/0010414020926199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Loxton, James. 2013. “Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in the Andes.” Democratization 20(1): 107–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan. 2002. “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy 13(2): 51–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Ziblatt, Daniel. 2018. ow Democracies Die. New York: Crown.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan. 1978. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown and Reequilibration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan. 1994. “Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does it Make a Difference?” In The Failure of Presidential Democracy, ed. Linz, Juan and Valenzuela, Arturo. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Long, Guillaume, Rosnick, David, Kharrazian, Cavan, and Cashman, Kevin. 2019. “What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission.” Unpublished manuscript. Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research.Google Scholar
Lust, Ellen. 2011. “Missing the Third Wave: Islam, Institutions, and Democracy in the Middle East.” Studies in Comparative International Development 46:163–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lührmann, Anna, and Lindberg, Staffan I.. 2019. "A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New about It?" Democratization 26(7): 1095–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott. 2018. “Party System Institutionalization, Predictability, and Democracy,” In Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scott, Mainwaring, and Pérez-Liñán, Anibal. 2013. Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Scully, Timothy, eds. 1995. Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Müftüler-Baç, Meltem. 2016. "The Pandora’s Box: Democratization and Rule of Law in Turkey." Asia Europe Journal 14.1: 61–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mydans, Seth. 2001. “Corruption Case Against Thailand's Leader Tests Rule of Law.” The New York Times, April 10. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/10/world/corruption-case-against-thailand-s-leader-tests-rule-of-law.html.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo, and Schmitte r, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Örnek, Özden. 2014. [Sözde Darbe Günlükleri (in Turkish)]. Istanbul: Nergiz Press.Google Scholar
Öztürk, Aykut. 2020. “The Affective Politics of Democratic Erosion: Explaining Mass Support for Executive Aggrandizement.” PhD dissertation, Syracuse University.Google Scholar
Phongpaichit, Pasuk, and Baker, Chris. 2009. Thaksin. 2nd ed.. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Silkworm Books.Google Scholar
Rittinger, Eric R., and Cleary, Matthew R.. 2013. “Confronting Coup Risk in the Latin American Left.” Studies in Comparative International Development 48(4): 403–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanchez-Sibony, Omar. 2017. “Classifying Ecuador's Regime under Correa: A Procedural Approach.” Journal of Politics in Latin America 9(3): 121–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2009. “Sources of Competition under Electoral Authoritarianism.” In Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition, ed. Lindberg, Staffan I., 179–201. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2013. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schedler, Andreas 2019. “What Do We Know about Resistance to Democratic Subversion?” Annals of Comparative Democratization 17(1).Google Scholar
Selçuk, Orçun, and Hekimci, Dilara. 2020. “The Rise of the Democracy–Authoritarianism Cleavage and Opposition Coordination in Turkey (2014–2019).” Democratization 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1803841CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Selçuk, Orçun, Hekimci, Dilara, and Erpul, Onur. 2019. “The Erdoğanization of Turkish Politics and the Role of the Opposition.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 19(4): 541–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Michael, Shifter. 2016. “Civil-Military Relations Sour as Correa Amasses Power in Ecuador.” March 3. (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/18103/civil-military-relations-sour-as-correa-amasses-power-in-ecuador).Google Scholar
Sinpeng, Vipapat Aim. 2013. “The Power of Political Movement and the Collapse of Democracy in Thailand.” PhD dissertation, University of British Columbia.Google Scholar
Sontag, Deborah. 2003. “The Erdoğan Experiment”. New York Times Magazine, May 11. (https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/11/magazine/the-erdogan-experiment.html).Google Scholar
Stoyan, Alissandra. 2020. “Ambitious Reform via Constituent Assemblies: Determinants of Success in Contemporary Latin America.” Studies in Comparative International Development 55:99–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2019. “Polarization versus Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 30(3): 20–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taş, Hakkı. 2018. “A History of Turkey’s AKP-Gülen Conflict." Mediterranean Politics 23(3): 395–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, Reggie. 2015. “In Ecuador, Bid for New Term Swells Protests.” Stratfor Worldview, July 2. (https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ecuador-bid-new-term-swells-protests).Google Scholar
Waldner, David, and Lust, Ellen. 2018. “Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding.” Annual Review of Political Science 21:93–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yalman, Aytaç. 2014. [Zorlu Yılların Sessiz Tanığı (in Turkish)]. Istanbul: Kastaş Press.Google Scholar
Yavuz, M. Hakan, and Koç, Rasim. 2016. “The Turkish Coup Attempt: The Gülen Movement vs. the State.” Middle East Policy 23(4): 136–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yeşilada, Birol A. 2016. “The Future of Erdoğan and the AKP.” Turkish Studies 17(1): 19–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Cleary and Öztürk supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Cleary and Öztürk supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 236.6 KB