Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T17:31:32.706Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision Making

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 2004

Andrew D. Martin ,
Kevin M. Quinn ,
Theodore W. Ruger  and
Pauline T. Kim
Andrew D. Martin
Affiliation:
Andrew D. Martin ([email protected]) is associate professor of political science at Washington University, St. Louis
Kevin M. Quinn
Affiliation:
Kevin Quinn ([email protected]) is assistant professor at Harvard University, Department of Government
Theodore W. Ruger
Affiliation:
Theodore W. Ruger ([email protected]) is assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School
Pauline T. Kim
Affiliation:
Pauline T. Kim ([email protected]) is professor of law at Washington University School of Law
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Political scientists and legal academics have long scrutinized the U.S. Supreme Court's work to understand what motivates the justices. Despite significant differences in methodology, both disciplines seek to explain the Court's decisions by focusing on examining past cases. This retrospective orientation is surprising. In other areas of government, for example, presidential elections and congressional decision making, political scientists engage in systematic efforts to predict outcomes, yet few have done this for court decisions. Legal academics, too, possess expertise that should enable them to forecast legal events with some accuracy. After all, the everyday practice of law requires lawyers to predict court decisions in order to advise clients or determine litigation strategies.The authors thank Michael Cherba, Nancy Cummings, David Dailey, Alison Garvey, Nick Hershman, and Robin Rimmer for their assistance. Their project is supported in part by National Science Foundation grants SES-0135855 and SES 0136679. The foundation bears no responsibility for the results or conclusions.

Type
SYMPOSIUM
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 2 , Issue 4 , December 2004 , pp. 761 - 767
Copyright
© 2004 American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abel, Richard L., ed. 1995. The law and society reader. New York: NYU Press.
Abu-Ali Abdur'Rahman v. Ricky Bell. 537 U.S. 968 (2002).
American Insurance Association v. Garamendi. 539 U.S. 396 (2003).
Atkins v. Virginia. 536 U.S. 304 (2002).
Beck, Ulrich 1991. Risk society: Towards a new modernity. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.
Berg, Joyce, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz. 2000. Results for a dozen years of election futures markets research. College of Business, University of Iowa.
Black, Donald. 1989. Sociological justice. New York: Oxford University Press.
Borden Ranch Partnership v. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 537 U.S. 99 (2002).
Bowers v. Hardwick. 478 U.S. 186 (1986).
Brown v. Legal Foundation of Washington. 538 U.S. 216 (2003).
Breiman, Leo, Jerome H. Friedman, Richard A. Olshen, and Charles J. Stone. 1984. Classification and regression trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
Breuer v. Jim's Concrete. 538 U.S. 691 (2003).
Chavez v. Martinez. 537 U.S. 1027 (2002).
Connecticut Department of Public Safety v. Doe. 538 U.S. 1 (2003).
Cook County v. United States ex rel. Chandler. 538 U.S. 119 (2003).
Cotterrell, Roger. 1992. The sociology of law: An introduction. 2nd ed. London: Butterworth.
Demore v. Kim. 538 U.S. 510 (2003).
Dow Chemical v. Stephenson. 539 U.S. 111 (2003).
Durkheim, Emile. 1964. The rules of sociological method. New York: Free Press.
Eldred v. Ashcroft. 537 U.S. 186 (2003).
Epstein, Lee, and Jack Knight. 1998. The choices justices make. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Epstein, Lee, Jack Knight, and Andrew D. Martin. 2003. Childress Symposium: The political (science) context of judging. Saint Louis University Law Journal 47 (3): 783–817.Google Scholar
Eskridge, William N., Jr. 1995. The one senator, one vote clause. Constitutional Commentary 12 (2): 159–62.Google Scholar
Ewick, Patricia, and Susan S. Silbey. 1998. The common place of law: Stories from everyday life. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ewick, Patricia, and Susan S. Silbey 2003. Common knowledge and ideological critique: The significance of knowing that the “haves” come out ahead. In In Litigation: Do the “Haves” Still Come Out Ahead? ed. Herbert Kritzer and Susan S. Silbey, 273–89. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Ewing v. California. 538 U.S. 11 (2003).
Farber, Daniel A., and Suzanna Sherry. 2002. Desperately seeking certainty: The misguided quest for constitutional foundations. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Federal Communications Commission v. NextWave Communications. 537 U.S. 293 (2003).
Federal Election Commission v. Beaumont. 539 U.S. 146 (2003).
Fisher, R. A. 1935. The logic of inductive inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 98 (1): 39–54.Google Scholar
Ford Motor Co. v. McCauley. 537 U.S. 1 (2002).
Forsythe, Robert, Forrest Nelson, George R. Neumann, and Jack Wright. 1992. Anatomy of an experimental political stock market. American Economic Review 82 (5): 1142–61.Google Scholar
Freidson, Eliot. 2001. Professionalism, The third logic. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
Friedman, Lawrence. 1977. Law and society: An introduction. Englewood, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Friedman, Lawrence 1984. American law. New York: W. W. Norton.
Galanter, Marc. 1974. Why the “haves” come out ahead: Speculations on the limits of legal change. Law and Society Review 9 (1): 95–160.Google Scholar
Giddens, Anthony. 1990. The consequences of modernity. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Goodman, Douglas. 2003. Consumption as a social problem. In The handbook of social problems, ed. G. Ritzer, 236–45. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2003.
Goodman, Douglas, and Susan S. Silbey. 2004. Defending the liberal arts against law. In Law in the liberal arts, ed. Austin Sarat, 17–40. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Gratz v. Bollinger. 539 U.S. 244 (2003).
Greenhouse, Linda. 2002a. Justices to reconsider ruling against sex between gays. New York Times, December 3.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002b. Supreme Court seems skeptical of F.C.C. position on Next Wave. New York Times, October 9.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002c. Justices hear arguments on extension of copyrights. New York Times, October 10.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002d. Court revisits question of jury selection bias. New York Times, October 17.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002e. California's 3-strikes law tested again. New York Times, November 6.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002f. Asbestos appeal centers on fear of cancer. New York Times, November 7.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002g. Method of legal services financing is challenged before Supreme Court. New York Times, December 10.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002h. An intense attack by Justice Thomas on cross-burning. New York Times, December 12.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002i. Court ponders limits of punitive damages. New York Times, December 12.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003a. Nike, fighting trade suit, asks justices for free-speech protection. New York Times, April 24.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003b. Medical leave act is debated in major federalism case. New York Times, January 16.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003c. Justices seem to lean to charity telemarketer. New York Times, March 4.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003d. Justices hear arguments on campaign finance. New York Times, March 26.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003e. Court appears ready to reverse a sodomy law. New York Times, March 27.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003f. Affirmative reaction: Can the justices buck what the establishment backs? New York Times, March 30.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003g. Justices look for nuance in race-preference case. New York Times, April 2.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003h. Justices show their doubts on state law on Holocaust. New York Times, April 24.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003i. First Amendment argument is made in a trespass case. New York Times, May 1.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003j. In a momentous term, justices remake the law, and the Court. New York Times, July 1.
Greenhouse, Linda 1984. The theory of communicative action. Vol. 1, Reason and the rationalization of society. Boston: Beacon Press.
Greenhouse, Linda 1987. The theory of communicative action. Vol. 2, Lifeworld and system. Boston: Beacon Press.
Greenhouse, Linda 1998. Between facts and norms: Contributions to a discourse theory of law and democracy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Green Tree Financial Corp. v. Bazzle. 539 U.S. 444 (2003).
Grutter v. Bollinger. 539 U.S. 982 (2003).
Habermas, Jürgen. 1984. The theory of communicative action. Vol. 1, Reason and the rationalization of society. Boston: Beacon Press.
Habermas, Jürgen 1987. The theory of communicative action. Vol. 2, Lifeworld and system. Boston: Beacon Press.
Habermas, Jürgen 1998. Between facts and norms: Contributions to a discourse theory of law and democracy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Hillside Dairy Inc. v. Lyons. 539 U.S. 59 (2003).
Holmes, Oliver Wendell. 1881. The common law. Boston: Little, Brown.
Hunt, Alan 1978. The sociological movement in law. London: Macmillan.
Illinois ex rel. Madigan, Attorney General of Illinois v. Telemarketing Associates. 538 U.S. 600 (2003).
Jacobellis v. Ohio. 378 U.S. 184 (1964).
Johnson, Timothy R. 2004. Oral arguments and decision making on the United States Supreme Court. New York: SUNY Press.
King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative inference. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Kritzer, Herbert, and Susan S. Silbey, eds. 2003. In litigation: Do the haves still come out ahead. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Lane, Charles. 2003 Civil liberties were term's big winner. Washington Post, June 29.
Lawrence v. Texas. 539 U.S. 558 (2003).
Levitt, Peggy. 2002. Transnational villagers. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tom W. Rice. 1992. Forecasting elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Martin, Andrew D., and Kevin M. Quinn. 2002. Dynamic ideal point estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo for the U.S. Supreme Court, 1953–1999. Political Analysis 10 (2): 134–53.Google Scholar
Martin, Andrew D., Kevin M. Quinn, Theodore W. Ruger, and Pauline T. Kim. 2004. Competing approaches to predicting Supreme Court decision making. Perspectives on Politics 2 (4): 761–767.Google Scholar
McGuire, Kevin, and Barbara Palmer. 1995. Issue fluidity on the U.S. Supreme Court. American Political Science Review 89 (3): 691–702.Google Scholar
Meehl, Paul. 1954. Clinical vs. statistical prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Meirowitz, Adam, and Joshua A. Tucker. 2004. Learning from terrorism markets. Perspectives on Politics 2 (2): 331–36.Google Scholar
Menand, Louis. 2001. The metaphysical club. New York: Farrar Straus Giroux.
Merrill, Thomas W. 2003. Childress Symposium: The making of the second Rehnquist Court: A preliminary analysis. Saint Louis University Law Journal 47 (3): 569–658.Google Scholar
Miller-El v. Cockrell. 537 U.S. 322 (2003).
Moseley v. V Secret Catalogue. 537 U.S. 418 (2003).
National Park Hospitality Assn. v. Dept. of Interior. 538 U.S. 803 (2003).
Nevada Department of Human Resources v. Hibbs. 538 U.S. 721 (2003).
Nguyen v. United States. 539 U.S. 69 (2003).
Nike, Inc. v. Kasky. 539 U.S. 654 (2003).
Nisbett, Richard, and Lee Ross. 1980. Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Norfolk & Western Railway Co. v. Ayers. 538 U.S. 135 (2003).
O'Connor, Sandra Day. 2003. The majesty of the law: Reflections of a Supreme Court justice. New York: Random House.
Penry v. Lynaugh. 492 U.S. 302 (1989).
Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. Walsh. 538 U.S. 644 (2003).
Pierce County v. Guillen. 537 U.S. 129 (2003).
Poole, Keith T., and Howard Rosenthal. 1991. Patterns of congressional voting. American Journal of Political Science 35 (1): 228–78.Google Scholar
Poole, Keith T., and Howard Rosenthal 1997. Congress: A political-economic history of roll call voting. New York: Oxford University Press.
Quinn, James B. 1992. Intelligent enterprise: A knowledge and service based paradigm for industry. New York: Free Press.
Romer v. Evans. 517 U.S. 620 (1996).
Ruger, Theodore W., Pauline T. Kim, Andrew D. Martin, and Kevin M. Quinn. 2004. The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and political science approaches to predicting Supreme Court decisionmaking. Columbia Law Review 104 (4): 1150–1209.Google Scholar
Scheidler v. National Organization for Women. 537 U.S. 393 (2003).
Segal, Jeffrey A., and Harold J. Spaeth. 2002. The Supreme Court and the attitudinal model revisited. New York: Cambridge.
Sell v. United States. 539 U.S. 166 (2003).
Sherry, Suzanna. 1986. Civic virtue and the feminine voice in constitutional adjudication. Virginia Law Review 72 (April): 543–616.Google Scholar
Sherry, Suzanna 2003. The unmaking of a precedent. Supreme Court Review 2003:231–67.Google Scholar
Silbey, Susan S. 1997. Let them eat cake: Globalization, postmodern colonialism and the possibilities of justice. Law & Society Review 31 (2): 207–35.Google Scholar
Simon, Jonathan. 1988. Ideological effects of actuarial practices. Law & Society Review 22 (4): 771–800.Google Scholar
Sirovich, Lawrence. 2003. A pattern analysis of the second Rehnquist U.S. Supreme Court. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/10.1073/pnas.1132164100.Google Scholar
Smith, A. D. 1990. Toward a global culture? Theory, culture and society 7 (2–3): 171–91.Google Scholar
Smith v. Doe. 538 U.S. 84 (2003).
Spaeth, Harold J. 2003. The original United States Supreme Court judicial database, 1953–2002 terms. Program for Law and Judicial Politics, Michigan State University.
State Farm v. Campbell. 538 U.S. 408 (2003).
Stewart, Sharla. 2003. Revolution from within. University of Chicago Magazine 95 (2): 33–37.Google Scholar
Stogner v. California. 539 U.S. 607 (2003).
Sutton, John. 2001. Law/society: Origins, interactions, and change. Boston Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press.
United States v. American Library Association. 539 U.S. 194 (2003).
United States v. Bean. 537 U.S. 71 (2002).
Virginia v. Black. U.S.538 U.S. 343 (2003).
Virginia v. Hicks. 539 U.S. 113 (2003).
Wasby, Stephen, Anthony D'Amato, and Rosemary Metrailer. 1976. The functions of oral argument in the U.S. Supreme Court. Quarterly Journal of Speech 62 (4): 410–22.Google Scholar
Washington Legal Foundation v. Legal Foundation of Washington. See Brown v. Legal Foundation of Washington.
Wiggins v. Smith. 539 U.S. 510 (2003).
Zadvydas v. Davis. 533 U.S. 678 (2001).