Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T15:59:56.820Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The White Working Class and the 2016 Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 May 2020

Nicholas Carnes  and
Noam Lupu Open the ORCID record for Noam Lupu [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Academics and political pundits alike attribute rising support for right-wing political options across advanced democracies to the working classes. In the United States, authors claim that the white working class offered unprecedented and crucial support for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. But what is the evidence for this claim? We examine all of the available academic survey data gathered around the election, along with a number of surveys from prior elections. We test four common claims about the white working class in 2016: (1) that most Trump voters were white working-class Americans; (2) that most white working-class voters supported Trump; (3) that unusually large numbers of white working-class voters switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016; and (4) that white working-class voters were pivotal to Trump’s victory in several swing states. We find that three of the four are not supported by the available data, and the other lacks crucial context that casts doubt on the idea that Trump uniquely appealed to working-class Americans. White working-class Americans have been supporting Republican presidential candidates at higher rates in recent elections, but that process long predates 2016, and narratives that center on Trump’s alleged appeal obscure this important long-term trend.

Type
Special Section: Working Class Blues or Reds?
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 2021 , pp. 55 - 72
Copyright
© American Political Science Association 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

*

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/N8ELFU

For their comments and advice, we are grateful to Larry Bartels, Josh Clinton, John Sides, and three anonymous reviewers.

References

Adorf, Philipp. 2018. “A New Blue-Collar Force: The Alternative for Germany and the Working Class.” German Politics and Society 36(4): 29-49.10.3167/gps.2018.360402CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae. 1999. “‘Sure, I Voted for the Winner!’ Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Election Studies.” Political Behavior 21(3): 197-215.10.1023/A:1022031432535CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2000. “Panel Effects in the American National Election Studies.” Political Analysis 8(1): 1–20.10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029802CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2006. “What’s the Matter with What’s the Matter with Kansas?” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1(2): 201-26.10.1561/100.00000010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M., and Cramer, Katherine J.. 2019. “The Political Impact of Economic Change: The Class of ’65 Meets the ‘New Gilded Age’.” Unpublished manuscript. (https://faculty.polisci.wisc.edu/kwalsh2/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/bartels.cramer.mpsaFINAL-1.pdf).Google Scholar
Belli, Robert F., Traugott, Michael W., Young, Margaret, and McGonagle, Katherine A.. 1999. “Reducing Vote Overreporting in Surveys: Social Desirability, Memory Failure, and Source Monitoring.” Public Opinion Quarterly 63(1): 90-108.10.1086/297704CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhambra, Gurminder K. 2017. “Brexit, Trump, and ‘Methodological Whiteness’: On the Misrecognition of Race and Class.” British Journal of Sociology 68(S1): S214-32.10.1111/1468-4446.12317CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brownstein, Ronald. 2015. “The Billionaire Candidate and His Blue-Collar Following.” The Atlantic, September 11.Google Scholar
Brownstein, Ronald 2016. “Trump Wins by Breaching Democrats’ ‘Blue Wall’ in Rust Belt.” National Journal, November 9.Google Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas. 2013. White-Collar Government: The Hidden Role of Class in Economic Policy Making. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226087283.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas 2018. The Cash Ceiling: Why Only the Rich Run for Office--and What We Can Do About It. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2015. “Rethinking the Comparative Perspective on Class and Representation: Evidence from Latin America.” American Journal of Political Science 59(1): 1-18.10.1111/ajps.12112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2016a. “Do Voters Dislike Working-Class Candidates? Voter Biases and the Descriptive Underrepresentation of the Working Class.” American Political Science Review 110(4): 832-844.10.1017/S0003055416000551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2016b. “Why Trump’s appeal is wider than you might think.” MSNBC online, April 8. (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/why-trumps-appeal-wider-you-might-think).Google Scholar
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2017. “It’s Time to Bust the Myth: Most Trump Voters Were Not Working Class.” The Washington Post, June 5.Google Scholar
Cramer, Kathy. 2016. The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of the Scott Walker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226349251.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Devega, Chauncey. 2017. “Can We Finally Kill Off the Zombie Lie? Trump’s Voters Mostly Weren’t the ‘White Working Class’.” Salon, June 7.Google Scholar
Douthat, Ross. 2018. “A Defeat for White Identity.” New York Times, November 10.Google Scholar
Enten, Harry. 2018. “It Makes Perfect Sense That Roseanne Is a Trump Voter.” CNN, March 29.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2012. The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226922164.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 2017. Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemate. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.Google Scholar
Flanagan, Brendan. 2019. “Democrats Must Win Back Working-Class Voters.” RealClearPolitics, December 5. (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/05/democrats_must_win_back_working-class_voters_141884.html).Google Scholar
Flood, Sarah, King, Miriam, Rodgers, Renae, Ruggles, Steven, and Warren, J. Robert. 2018. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Current Population Survey: Version 6.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2018. https://doi.org/10.18128/D030.V6.0.Google Scholar
Foreman, Tynesha, and Pollock, Nicolas. 2017. “Why the White, Working Class Voted for Trump.” The Atlantic, May 12.Google Scholar
Fraga, Bernard L., Schaffner, Brian, Rhodes, Jesse, and McElwee, Sean. 2017. “Why Did Trump Win? More Whites⸺and Fewer Blacks⸺Actually Voted.” The Washington Post, May 8.Google Scholar
Francis, Robert D. 2018. “Him, Not Her: Why Working-class White Men Reluctant about Trump Still Made Him President of the United States.” Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World 4:1-11.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Frank, Thomas. 2016. “Millions of Ordinary Americans Support Donald Trump. Here’s Why.” The Guardian, March 7.Google Scholar
Frankel, Laura Lazarus, and Hillygus, D. Sunshine. 2014. “Looking beyond Demographics: Panel Attrition in the ANES and GSS.” Political Analysis 22(3): 336–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fukuyama, Francis. 2018. Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew. 2009. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400832118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gest, Justin, Reny, Tyler, and Mayer, Jeremy. 2018. “Roots of the Radical Right: Nostalgic Deprivation in the United States and Britain.” Comparative Political Studies 51(13): 1694-719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodwin, Mathew J., and Heath, Oliver. 2016. “The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result.” Political Quarterly 87(3): 323-32.10.1111/1467-923X.12285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Jon, and McElwee, Sean. 2019. “The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump.” Perspectives on Politics 17(2): 359-77.10.1017/S1537592718003365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harris, John. 2016. “Britain Is in the Midst of a Working-Class Revolt.” The Guardian, June 17.Google Scholar
Healy, Patrick. 2018. “Roseanne Conner Has Become a Trump Supporter. Just Like Her Creator.” New York Times, March 27.Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara B. 2016. “The Brexit Vote: A Divided Nation, a Divided Continent.” Journal of European Public Policy 23(9): 1259-77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hout, Michael, Manza, Jeff, and Brooks, Clem. 1995. “The Democratic Class Struggle in the United States, 1948–1992.” American Sociological Review 60: 805–28.10.2307/2096428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert P., and Rehm, Philipp. 2019. “Secular Partisan Realignment in the United States: The Socioeconomic Reconfiguration of White Partisan Support Since the New Deal Era.” Politics & Society 47(3): 425-97.10.1177/0032329219861215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamont, Michèle, Park, Bo Yun, and Ayala-Hurtado, Elena. 2017. “Trump’s electoral speeches and his appeal to the American white working class.” British Journal of Sociology 68(S1): S153-S180.10.1111/1468-4446.12315CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Leonhardt, David. 2018. “Yes, the Economy Helped Elect Trump.” The New York Times, May 8.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. “Democracy and Working-Class Authoritarianism.” American Sociological Review 24(4): 482-501.10.2307/2089536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lopez, Jesse, and Hillygus, D. Sunshine. 2018. “Why So Serious? Survey Trolls and Misinformation.” Unpublished manuscript. (https://ssrn.com/abstract=3131087).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masket, Seth. 2018. “Learning from Loss? How Interpretations of the Last Election Affect the Next One.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 29–September 2.Google Scholar
Manza, Jeff, and Crowley, Ned. 2017. “Working Class Hero? Interrogating the Social Bases of the Rise of Donald Trump.” The Forum 15(1): 3-28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McElwee, Jesse H. Rhodes, Schaffner, Brian F., and Fraga, Bernard L.. 2018. “The Missing Obama Millions.” The New York Times, March 10.Google Scholar
McQuarrie, Michael. 2017. “The Revolt of the Rust Belt: Place and Politics in the Age of Anger.” British Journal of Sociology 68(S1): S120-S152.Google ScholarPubMed
Mény, Yves. 2017. “A Tale of Party Primaries and Outsider Candidates: The 2017 French Presidential Election.” French Politics 15(3): 265-78.10.1057/s41253-017-0038-5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monnat, Shannon M., and Brown, David L.. 2017. “More Than a Rural Revolt: Landscapes of Despair and the 2016 Presidential Election.” Journal of Rural Studies 55:227-36.10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.08.010CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morgan, Stephen. 2018. “Status Threat, Material Interests, and the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World 4:1-17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L., and Lee, Jiwon. 2017. “The White Working Class and Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections, 2004 to 2016.” Sociological Science 4: 656-85.10.15195/v4.a27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L., and Lee, Jiwon. 2018. “Trump Voters and the White Working Class.” Sociological Science 5: 234-45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 2018a. “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(19): E4330-E4339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 2018b. “Response to Morgan: On the Role of Status Threat and Material Interests in the 2016 Election.” Socius. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F2378023118808619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newkirk, Vann R. II. 2016. “Simply Repealing Obamacare Will Hurt the White Working Class.” The Atlantic, November 22.Google Scholar
Ogorzalek, Thomas, Piston, Spencer, and Forthcoming, Luisa Godine Puig. “Nationally Poor, Locally Rich: Income and Local Context in the 2016 Presidential Election.” Electoral Studies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102068.Google Scholar
Reich, Robert. 2015. “The Real Reason Donald Trump Appeals to Working-Class Whites.” Salon, November 10. (https://www.salon.com/2015/11/10/robert_reich_the_real_reason_donald_trump_appeals_to_working_class_whites_partner/).Google Scholar
Reny, Tyler T., Collingwood, Loren, and Valenzuela, Ali A.. 2019. “Vote Switching in the 2016 Election: How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting.” Public Opinion Quarterly 83(1): 91-113.10.1093/poq/nfz011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodden, Jonathan. 2017. “‘Red’ America Is an Illusion. Postindustrial Towns Go for Democrats.” The Washington Post, February 14.Google Scholar
Rothenberg, Stuart. 2019. “Why Working-Class Whites Aren’t Giving Up on Trump.” Roll Call, September 10. (https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/learning-lessons-about-working-class-whites).Google Scholar
Rubin, Jennifer. 2018. “The Suburbs, Women, Some Working-Class Whites and Now Even a Swamp Creature Abandon Trump.” The Washington Post, December 12.Google Scholar
Sargent, Greg. 2017. “Donald Trump Will Likely Betray His White Working-Class Voters.” The Washington Post, February 23.Google Scholar
Schaffner, Brian F., MacWilliams, Matthew, and Tatishe, Nteta. 2018. “Understanding White Polarization in the 2016 Vote for President: The Sobering Role of Racism and Sexism.” Political Science Quarterly 133(1): 9-34.10.1002/polq.12737CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sherer, Jennifer. 2017. “Midwest Labor and the Working-Class Vote: The Case of Iowa.” Labor Studies Journal 42(3): 245-50.10.1177/0160449X17726605CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sides, John, Tesler, Michael, and Vavreck, Lynn. 2018. Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.2307/j.ctvc77mmbCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silver, Nate. 2016. “The Mythology of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support.” FiveThirtyEight, May 3. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/).Google Scholar
Smith, David Norman, and Hanley, Eric. 2018. “The Anger Games: Who Voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 Election, and Why?” Critical Sociology 44(2): 195-212.10.1177/0896920517740615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stonecash, Jeffrey M. 2017. “The Puzzle of Class in Presidential Voting.” The Forum 15(1): 29-49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavernise, Sabrina, and Gebeloff, Robert. 2018. “They Voted for Obama, Then Went for Trump. Can Democrats Win Them Back?” New York Times, May 4.Google Scholar
Tourangeau, Roger, Rips, Laurence J., and Rasinski, Kenneth. 2000. The Psychology of the Survey Response. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511819322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Elsas, Erika J., Lubbe, Rozemarijn, van der Meer, Tom W.G., and van der Brug, Wouter. 2014. “Vote Recall: A Panel Study on the Mechanisms That Explain Vote Recall Inconsistency.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 26(1): 18-40.10.1093/ijpor/edt031CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waldahl, Ragnar, and Aardal, Bernt. 2002. “The Accuracy of Recalled Previous Voting: Evidence from Norwegian Election Study Panels.” Scandinavian Political Studies 23(4): 373-89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weeden, Kim A., and Grusky, David B.. 2005. “The Case for a New Class Map.” American Journal of Sociology 111(1): 141–212.10.1086/428815CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Erik Olin. 1997. “Rethinking, Once Again, the Concept of Class Structure.” In Reworking Class, ed. Hall, John. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Wright, Gerald C. 1993. “Errors in Measuring Vote Choice in the National Election Studies, 1952–88.” American Journal of Political Science 37(1): 291-316.10.2307/2111533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zitner, Aaron and Chinni, Dante. 2015. “Rust Belt Could Be Donald Trump’s Best Route to White House.” Wall Street Journal, March 6.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Carnes and Lupu Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/N8ELFU
Link
Supplementary material: File

Carnes and Lupu supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Carnes and Lupu supplementary material(File)
File 720.2 KB