Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T14:09:08.740Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Learning from Terrorism Markets

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2004

Adam Meirowitz  and
Joshua A. Tucker
Adam Meirowitz
Affiliation:
Adam Meirowitz is an Assistant Professor of Politics at Princeton University
Joshua A. Tucker
Affiliation:
Joshua A. Tucker is an Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

On July 28, 2003, Senators Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.) held a press conference to call attention to a DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) project that would allow investors to bet on future political events in the Middle East—including terrorist attacks—through a commodity-market style trading system. On July 29, newspapers responded by denouncing this “unbelievably stupid” and “grotesque” market. Later that day, the program was officially cancelled.The authors thank Ellie Powell and Tatyana Karaman for their excellent research assistance, and Gary Bass, Tom Romer, the editor of Perspectives on Politics, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions.

Type
PERSPECTIVES
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 2 , Issue 2 , June 2004 , pp. 331 - 336
Copyright
© 2004 American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

The Augusta (Ga.) Chronicle. 2003. A brainless scheme. 4 August, A4.
Berkowitz, Bruce D., and Allan E. Goodman. 2000. Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Bowman, Tom. 2003. Want to bet on terrorism? Pentagon wants to let you. The Baltimore Sun, 29 July, A1.
Brown, Jeff. 2003. Lack of intelligence true demise of terrorism futures. The Houston Chronicle, 3 August, 1.
Chen, Kay-Yut, and Charles R. Plott. 2002. Information aggregation mechanisms: Concept, design and implementation for a sales forecasting problem. Social Science Working Paper 1131, California Institute of Technology.
Day, Bill. 2003. Terror market is still a bad idea. The San Antonio Express News, 16 August, 2H.
Dorgan, Byron L. 2003. The Pentagon's ill-conceived market. The Washington Post, 7 August, A20.
The Economist. 1999. The heyday of the auction. 24 July, 67–8.
Forsythe, Robert, Forrest Nelson, George R. Neumann, and Jack Wright. 1992. Anatomy of an experimental political stock market. The American Economic Review 82:5, 1, 142–161.Google Scholar
Glenn, Joshua. 2003. Betting on trouble. The Boston Globe, 3 August, E5.
Gosselin, Peter G. 2003. Plan for terrorism futures market killed. Los Angeles Times, 30 July, 11.
Graham, Bradley. 2003. Poindexter to leave Pentagon research job. The Washington Post, 1 August, A1.
Graham, Bradley, and Vernon Loeb. 2003. All bets off as Pentagon scraps “invest in terror” plan. The Record (Bergen County, N.J.), 30 July, A1.
Guggenheim, Ken. 2003. Warner says Pentagon threat-bet program to be canceled. The Associated Press. 29 July.
Hayek, Friedrich A. 1948. Individualism and Economic Order. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Hudson, Audrey. 2003. Hill hits gambling program on terror. The Washington Times, 29 July, A1.
Jacobsen, Ben, Jan Potters, Arthur Schram, Frans van Winden, and Jorgen Wit. 2000. (In)accuracy of a European political stock market: The influence of common value structures. European Economic Review 44:2, 205–30.Google Scholar
The New York Post. 2003. All bets are off. 31 July, 28.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. 2003. Futures shock: The Pentagon's sick take on risk strategy. 2 August, A10.
Portland Press Herald. 2003. Weigh security with privacy rights carefully. 3 August, 4C.
San Mateo County Times. 2003. Futures market, Poindexter Pentagon's bad bets. 1 August.
Santa Fe New Mexican. 2003. Dr. Strangelove caught in bizarre betting parlor. 31 July, A7.
St. Louis Post-Dispatch. 2003. “Unbelievably stupid.” 30 July, C12.
Surowiecki, James. 2003. Damn the slam PAM plan! Slate Online. 30 July. Available at slate.msn.com/id/2086427. Accessed 5 January 2004.
U.S. Congress, Senate, Select Committee on Intelligence, and U.S. Congress, House, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. 2002. Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001. 107th Congress, 2d Session, Senate Report 107-351, House Report 107-792.
The Virginian Pilot. 2003. Pentagon drowns in its own “dead pool.” 31 July, B10.
Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2003. The furor over “terrorism futures.” The Washington Post, 31 July, A19.