Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T11:18:28.501Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Testing for variation in taxonomic extinction probabilities: a suggested methodology and some results

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2016

Michael J. Conroy  and
James D. Nichols
Michael J. Conroy
Affiliation:
Nichols. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland 20708
James D. Nichols
Affiliation:
Nichols. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland 20708
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Several important questions in evolutionary biology and paleobiology involve sources of variation in extinction rates. In all cases of which we are aware, extinction rates have been estimated from data in which the probability that an observation (e.g., a fossil taxon) will occur is related both to extinction rates and to what we term encounter probabilities. Any statistical method for analyzing fossil data should at a minimum permit separate inferences on these two components. We develop a method for estimating taxonomic extinction rates from stratigraphic range data and for testing hypotheses about variability in these rates. We use this method to estimate extinction rates and to test the hypothesis of constant extinction rates for several sets of stratigraphic range data. The results of our tests support the hypothesis that extinction rates varied over the geologic time periods examined. We also present a test that can be used to identify periods of high or low extinction probabilities and provide an example using Phanerozoic invertebrate data. Extinction rates should be analyzed using stochastic models, in which it is recognized that stratigraphic samples are random variates and that sampling is imperfect.

Type
Articles
Information
Paleobiology , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , Summer 1984 , pp. 328 - 337
Copyright
Copyright © The Paleontological Society 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Literature Cited

Brownie, C., Anderson, D. R., Burnham, K. P., and Robson, D. S. 1978. Statistical inference from band recovery data—A handbook. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Serv. Resour. Publ. 131.212 pp.Google Scholar
Brownie, C. and Robson, D. S. 1976. Models allowing for age-dependent survival rates for band return data. Biometrics. 32:305–323.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Connor, E. F. and Simberloff, D. 1979. The assembly of species communities: chance or competition? Ecology. 60:1132–1140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conroy, M. J. and Williams, B. K.(in press)A general methodology for maximum likelihood inference from band recovery data. Biometrics.Google Scholar
Gillespie, J. H. and Ricklefs, R. E. 1979. A note on the estimation of species duration distributions. Paleobiology. 5:60–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holman, E. W. 1983. Time scales and taxonomic survivorship. Paleobiology. 9:20–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsü, K. J., et al. 1982. Mass mortality and its environmental and evolutionary consequences. Science. 216:249–256.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kale, B. K. 1962. On the solution of likelihood equations by iteration processes: The multiparametric case. Biometrika. 49:479–486.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, A. R. 1982. On the fallacy of constant extinction rates. Evolution. 36:610–614.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mood, A. M., Graybill, F. A., and Boes, D. C. 1974. Introduction to the Theory of Statistics. 564 pp. McGraw-Hill; New York.Google Scholar
Nichols, J. D., Stokes, S. L., Hines, J. E., and Conroy, M. J. 1982. Additional comments on the assumption of homogeneous survival rates in modern bird banding estimation models. J. Wildl. Manage. 46:953–962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nichols, J. D. and Pollock, K. H. 1983a. Estimation methodology in contemporary small mammal capture-recapture studies. J. Mammal. 64:253–260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nichols, J. D. and Pollock, K. H. 1983b. Estimating taxonomic diversity, extinction rates, and speciation rates from fossil data using capture-recapture models. Paleobiology. 9:150–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, J. F. 1983. Mass extinctions in the fossil record. Science. 219:1239–1240.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rao, C. R. 1965. Linear Statistical Inference and its Application. 522 pp. Wiley; New York.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1975. Taxonomic survivorship curves and Van Valen's law. Paleobiology. 1:82–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1977. Probabilistic models in evolutionary paleobiology. Am. Sci. 65:50–57.Google ScholarPubMed
Raup, D. M. 1978. Cohort analysis of generic survivorship. Paleobiology. 4:1–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1981. Extinction: bad genes or bad luck. Acta Geologica Hispanica. 16:25–33.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. and Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1982. Mass extinctions in the marine fossil record. Science. 215:1501–1503.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Raup, D. M., Sepkoski, J. J. Jr., and Stigler, S. M. 1983. Mass extinctions in the fossil record. Science. 219:1240–1241.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Raup, D. M., Gould, S. J., Schopf, T. J. M., and Simberloff, D. S. 1973. Stochastic models of phylogeny and the evolution of diversity. J. Geol. 81:525–542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1975. Stratigraphic biases in the analysis of taxonomic survivorship. Paleobiology. 1:343–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1982. A compendium of fossil marine families. Milwaukee Public Museum, Contributions in Biology and Geology no. 51. 125 pp.Google Scholar
Stanley, S. M. 1979. Macroevolution. W. H. Freeman; San Francisco.Google Scholar
Stanley, S. M., Addicott, W. O., and Chinzei, K. 1980. Lyellian curves in paleontology: possibilities and limitations. Geology. 8:422–426.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strong, D. R. Jr., Szyska, L. A., and Simberloff, D. S. 1979. Tests of community-wide character displacement against null hypotheses. Evolution. 33:897–913.Google ScholarPubMed
Van Valen, L. 1973. A new evolutionary law. Evol. Theory. 1:1–30.Google Scholar
White, G. C. 1983. Numerical estimation of survival rates from band-recovery and biotelemetry data. J. Wildl. Manage. 47:716–728.CrossRefGoogle Scholar