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Segmental Volatility in Ethnically Divided Societies: (Re)assessing Party System Stability in Southeast Europe

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 May 2021

Damir Kapidžić Open the ORCID record for Damir Kapidžić [Opens in a new window]  and
Olivera Komar
Damir Kapidžić*
Affiliation:
University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Olivera Komar
Affiliation:
University of Montenegro, Montenegro
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

This article examines the role of ethnicity and ethnic parties as stabilizing factors in Southeast European party systems. It compares two ethnically divided countries in Southeast Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina, where ethnic identities that form the political cleavage are firm, and Montenegro, where they are malleable. Theoretically, it addresses the debate between scholars who either find stability or instability in East European post-communist party systems. The article traces the role of ethnicity in the formation and development of electoral contests and compares the two cases by utilizing measures of block volatility, based on analysis of official electoral data. We argue that party systems in ethnically diverse countries are stable at the subsystems level, but unstable within them. In BiH, firm ethnic identity stabilizes the party system by limiting competition between blocks, leading to closure. Malleable ethnic identity in Montenegro opens competition to non-ethnic parties seeking to bridge ethnic divisions, leading to more instability. We find that party system dynamics in ethnically divided new democracies depend on identity rigidity and cleavage salience, in addition to levels of heterogeneity.

Keywords

party system stabilityethnic partiesblock volatilityBosnia and HerzegovinaMontenegro
Type
Article
Information
Nationalities Papers , Volume 50 , Issue 3 , May 2022 , pp. 535 - 553
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Association for the Study of Nationalities

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