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“After the Putsch”: Prospects for Independent Ukraine

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2018

David R. Marples
David R. Marples*
Affiliation:
University of Alberta
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Extract

There has been considerable speculation as to which of the former Soviet republics could become viable economic entities following the Putsch of August 19-21, 1991, and the resultant dissolution of the USSR. The consensus is that after Russia, Ukraine has the best chances of survival as a European state with a highly developed economy. Yet the picture remains a bleak one. Although Ukraine has advanced industry and has been a major source of grain crops (of winter wheat in particular), a declining standard of living had been forecast by its economic experts for the period 1991-1995, even before the August 24 declaration of independence. The following study will show Ukraine's major advantages and weaknesses, and what sort of prospects lie ahead for an independent Ukraine. As with any statements on the future of the former territories of the Soviet Union, they have to be qualified with the phrase “pending future political developments.” For the most part, the assumption is made that relations between Ukraine and its once and future economic partners will be amicable.

Type
Articles
Information
Nationalities Papers , Volume 21 , Issue 2: Special Issue - The Ex-Soviet Nationalities Without Gorbachev , Fall 1993 , pp. 35 - 46
Copyright
Copyright © 1993 by the Association for the Study of the Nationalities of the USSR and Eastern Europe, Inc. 

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References

Notes

1. Izvestiya, August 2, 1991, p. 1.Google Scholar

2. The author attended the function in question. See also Edmonton Journal, August 30, 1991. On Barbara McDougall's visit to Kiev, see Radyans'ka Ukraina, September 10, 1991, p. 1.Google Scholar

3. According to the Law concerning organs of state power and the government of the USSR in the transitional period, signed by Gorbachev on September 5, 1991, the Council of the Republics is to be composed of members of the various republics as delegated by the state authorities of these republics. It is dominated by the RSFSR, which has fifty-two delegates in the Council. The other Union republics and autonomous regions have one vote each. See Izvestiya, September 6, 1991, p. 2.Google Scholar

4. Solchanyk, Roman, “Ukraine and Russia: Relations Before and After the Failed Coup. Part One,” The Ukrainian Weekly, September 22, 1991, p. 2. On recent negotiations between Ukraine and the Crimean Tatars, see Radyans'ka Ukraina, September 18, 1991, p. 2.Google Scholar

5. Recent statistics on the ethnic composition of Ukraine by oblast have been compiled by Washington researcher, Adrian Karmazyn. See The Ukrainian Weekly, September 8, 1991, p. 2.Google Scholar

6. Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR v 1989g: statisticheskii ezhegodnik (Moscow, 1990), pp. 17, 19–24.Google Scholar

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9. As calculated in rubles of output, based on 1983 prices, Izvestiya, September 6, 1991, p. 1.Google Scholar

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28. Calculated from figures in Narodnoe khozyaistvo Ukrainskoi SSR: yubileinyi statisticheskii ezhegodnik (Kiev, 1987), p. 124.Google Scholar

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31. On October 1, the twelve republics that remain officially within the USSR (though with independent status) decided to form an economic union, at a meeting in Alma-Ata. At the time of writing, the details of this agreement had not been elaborated and its practicality remained unclear.Google Scholar

32. Based on discussions with Christopher Kedzie, associate director of the Harvard University project on Economic Reform in Ukraine (PERU), in Kiev, April 23, 1991.Google Scholar

33. Radio Kiev-3, July 8, 1991.Google Scholar

34. For an assessment of Kravchuk, see Roman Solchanyk, “Ukraine: From Chernobyl' to Sovereignty,” Report on the USSR, Vol. 3, No. 31, August 2, 1991, p. 26.Google Scholar

35. On Kravchuk during the coup, see Roman Solchanyk, “Ukraine: Kravchuk's Role,” Report on the USSR, Vol. 3, No. 36, September 6, 1991, pp. 47–50.Google Scholar

36. Radyans'ka Ukraina, September 11, 1991, p. 2.Google Scholar

37. Radio Kiev, August 28, 1991.Google Scholar

38. Ruban, Vladimir, writing in the Moscow News, No. 36, September 8-15,1991, p. 7.Google Scholar

39. See Radyans'ka Ukraina, September 13, 1991, p. 2. On some of the difficulties involved in this process prior to the coup, see, for example, Moscow News, No. 33, August 18-25, 1991, p. 6.Google Scholar

40. According to research conducted by sociologists before the coup, 13 percent of those polled intended to vote for the Communists in a new Ukrainian parliament. While not a large percentage, it was nonetheless higher than those for other parties. The Ukrainian Democratic Party, for example, was favored by 9 percent of those polled; the People's Party 8 percent; the Greens 5 percent; and the Republican Party 4 percent. These results, if accurate, suggest that the newly formed parties have not yet managed to capture the support of a large proportion of the electorate. See “News From Ukraine,” No. 34, August 1991, p. 4.Google Scholar

41. For example, Stepan Khmara, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Republican Party, as cited by Ruban, p. 7.Google Scholar

42. TASS, September 24, 1991.CrossRefGoogle Scholar