The pace of global expansion moderated somewhat in the second quarter of 2010. According to NIESR estimates, world GDP increased by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of the year and growth slowed to 1 per cent in the second quarter. The slowdown was widespread across Asia and America. Many of the lagging economies in Europe, on the other hand, accelerated in the second quarter of 2010, allowing some convergence in the global recovery. The slowdown in Asia and America was largely a reflection of a shift in the global balance of trade. Domestic demand growth in both the US and China accelerated in the second quarter, pulling in higher levels of imports and drawing with it an export-driven recovery in Europe. We forecast global growth of 4.9 per cent this year and 4½ per cent in 2011.