Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T06:00:22.412Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

World output growth continues to recover from its trough in 2001, albeit rather hesitantly. The slowdown in output growth in 2001 was largely centred in the OECD, with the US, Japan and Germany all recording growth below 1 per cent. In the last three years growth has been robust in other regions, but particularly in Asia, with China and India growing rapidly. Even Latin America is expected to show some signs of recovery this year after the currency related disruptions it experienced in 2002. It is becoming clear that 2002 saw reasonably strong output growth of 2.8 per cent in aggregate, rising from 2.2 per cent in 2001. Our forecast for 2003 is that the annual rate of output growth in the world will continue to increase, but weakness in a number of countries, including the US, at the end of 2002 suggests that it will not accelerate further into next year. The impact of the realignment of the dollar and the euro will also hold back world growth slightly this year and next. Our forecasts for output growth and inflation along with trade and oil prices are set out in Table 1.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 184 , April 2003 , pp. 9 - 35
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barrell, R., Becker, B. and Gottschalk, S. (2003), ‘Wage moderation policy in Germany’, NIESR, March.Google Scholar
Barrell, R., Choy, A., Gottschalk, S. and Holland, D. (2003) ‘Hong Kong Housing Market: An Econometric Model’, NIESR.Google Scholar
Barrell, R. and Hurst, I. (2003), ‘Benchmarks and Targets under the SGP; Evaluating Safe Deficit Targets and Automatic stabilisers using NiGEM’, NIESR, March.Google Scholar
Barrell, R., Hurst, I. and Kirsanova, T. (2003) ‘Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World: The UK and Monetary Union’, NIESR Discussion Paper 209, NIESR.Google Scholar
Barrell, R. and Mitchell, J. (2003) ‘Cyclicity and International Financial Developments’, forthcoming, NIESR.Google Scholar
Barrell, R. and Pain, N. (2000) ‘Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Europe: An Overview’ National Institute Economic Review, Issue 174, October 2000. Sage Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
Byrne, J. and Davies, E.P. (2002), ‘A comparison of balance sheet structures in major EU countries’, National Institute Economic Review, 180, April, pp. 83–95.Google Scholar
Congressional Budget Office (2003) An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2004: An Interim Report. March Box 1 Page 4.Google Scholar
Davis, P. (2003) ‘Comparing Bear Markets - 1973 and 2000’ National Institute Economic Review, Issue 183, January 2003. Sage Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
Mitchell, J., Massmann, M. and Weale, M.R. (2003) ‘Business Cycles and Turning Points: A Survey of Statistical Techniques’, National Institute Economic Review, Issue 183, January 2003. Sage Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. D. (2002) The Economic Consequences of the War with Iraq. In War, With Iraq: Costs, Consequences and Alternatives.Google Scholar
Kaysen, C.et al. (2002) American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Svennson, L. (2000) ‘The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap’, NBER Working Paper No. w7957.Google Scholar