The US, the UK and Canada all experienced recessions in 1991, whilst in Germany and Japan activity began to slow markedly. Most commentators, including the Institute, underestimated the length and severity of the recessions being experienced by the UK and the US. Data for the third and fourth quarters, along with recent information on expectations and on consumer confidence, have caused us to revise down both our estimate of growth experienced in 1991 and our forecast for growth in 1992. The summary details of our forecast are given in table 1.