Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-8bljj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-07T17:42:30.616Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

UK Unemployment in the Great Recession

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

David N.F. Bell*
Affiliation:
University of Stirling and IZA
David G. Blanchflower*
Affiliation:
Dartmouth College, University of Stirling, IZA, CESifo and NBER

Abstract

This paper considers some of the implications of the increase in UK unemployment since the beginning of the Great Recession. The major finding is that the sharp increase in unemployment and decrease in employment is largely concentrated on the young. This has occurred at a time when the size of the youth cohort is large. As a response to a lack of jobs there has been a substantial increase in applications to university, although there has only been a small rise in the number of places available. Further we find evidence that the unemployed have particularly low levels of well-being, are depressed, have low levels of life satisfaction, have difficulties paying their bills and are especially likely to be in financial difficulties.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ahn, N., García, J.R. and Jimeno, J.F. (2004), ‘The impact of unemployment on individual well-being in the EU’, European Network of Economic Policy Institutes, Working Paper No 29.Google Scholar
Arulampalam, W. (2001), ‘Is unemployment really scarring? Effects of unemployment experiences on wages’, Economic Journal, 111, November, pp. F585F606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arulampalam, W., Booth, A. and Taylor, M. (2000), ‘Unemployment persistence’, Oxford Economic Papers, 52, pp. 2450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banks, M.H. and Jackson, P.R. (1982), ‘Unemployment and the risk of minor psychiatric disorder in young people: cross- sectional and longitudinal evidence’, Psychological Medicine, 12, pp. 789–98.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Beale, N. and Nethercott, S. (1987), ‘The health of industrial employees four years after compulsory redundancy’, Journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 37 pp. 390–4.Google ScholarPubMed
Bell, D.N.F and Blanchflower, D.G. (2007), ‘The Scots may be brave but they are neither healthy nor happy,’ Scottish Journal of Political Economy, May, 54, 2, pp. 166–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, D.N.F and Blanchflower, D.G. (2009a), ‘What should be done about rising unemployment in the UK?’, Stirling Economics Discussion Paper 2009-06, February 2009.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F and Blanchflower, D.G. (2009b), ‘Youth unemployment: déjà vu?’, mimeo.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F and Blanchflower, D.G. (2009c), ‘What should be done about rising unemployment in the OECD?’, mimeo.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F and Blanchflower, D.G. (2010), ‘Recession and Unemployment in the OECD’, CESifo Forum, Issue 1, March.Google Scholar
Blakely, T.A., Collings, S.C.D. and Atkinson, J. (2003), ‘Unemployment and suicide. Evidence for a causal association?’, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 57, pp. 594600.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blanchard, O. and Wolfers, J. (2000), ‘The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: the aggregate evidence’, Economic Journal, 110, 462, pp. 133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchflower, D. G. (2007a), ‘Is unemployment more costly than inflation?’, NBER Working Paper WI3505, October.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchflower, D. G. (2007), ‘International patterns of union membership’, British Journal of Industrial Relations, March, 45(1), pp. 128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchflower, D. G. (2010), ‘The wellbeing of the young’, British Journal of Industrial Relations, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Blanchflower, D.G. and Freeman, R.B. (1996), ‘Growing into work: youth and the labour market over the 1980s and 1990s’, OECD Employment Outlook, Paris, OECD.Google Scholar
Blanchflower, D.G. and Freeman, R.B. (2000), ‘The declining economic status of young workers in OECD countries’, in Blanchflower, D.G. and Freeman, R.B. (eds), Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, University of Chicago Press and NBER.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchflower, D.G. and Oswald, A.J. (2004), ‘Well-being over time in Britain and the United States’, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 88, Issues 7-8, July, pp. 1359–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchflower, D.G. and Oswald, A.J. (2008), ‘Is well-being U-Shaped over the life cycle?’, Social Science & Medicine, 66, 6, pp. 17331749.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blanchflower, D. G. and Shadforth, C. (2009), ‘Fear, unemployment and migration’, Economic Journal, 119 (535), February, F136F182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brenner, M.H. and Mooney, A. (1983), Unemployment and health in the context of economic change’, Social Science and Medicine, 17, 16, pp. 1125–38.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Burgess, S., Propper, C., Rees, H. and Shearer, A. (2003), ‘The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences, Labour Economics, 10, 3, June, pp. 291309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmichael, F. and Ward, R. (2000), ‘Youth unemployment and crime in the English regions and Wales’, Applied Economics, 32 (5), April, pp. 559–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmichael, F. and Ward, R. (2001), ‘Male unemployment and crime in England and Wales’, Economics Letters, 73, pp. III —5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, A.E. (2003), ‘Unemployment as a social norm: psychological evidence from panel data’, Journal of Labor Economics, 21, pp. 323–5I.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, A.E., Knabe, A. and Ratzel, S. (2008), ‘Boon or bane? Others’ unemployment, well-being and job insecurity’, CESIFO working paper No. 2501, December.Google Scholar
Clark, A.E. and Oswald, A.J. (1994), ‘Unhappiness and unemployment’, Economic Journal, 104, 424, pp. 648–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, K.B. and Summers, L.H. (1982), ‘The dynamics of youth unemployment’ in Freeman, R.B. and Wise, D.A. (eds), The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, University of Chicago Press and NBER.Google Scholar
Daly, M.C., Wilson, D.J. and Johnson, N.J. (2008), ‘Relative status and well-being: evidence from U.S. suicide deaths’, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2007-12.Google Scholar
Darity, W. and Goldsmith, A.H. (1996), ‘Social psychology, unemployment and macroeconomics’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 1, Winter, pp. 121–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. and Oswald, A. (2001), ‘Preferences over inflation and unemployment: evidence from surveys of happiness’, American Economic Review, 91, pp. 335–4I.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. and Oswald, A. (2003), ‘The macroeconomics of happiness’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, pp. 809–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dickens, R. and Draca, M. (2005), ‘The employment effects of the October 2003 increase in the National Minimum Wage’, CEP, February.Google Scholar
Dickens, R., and Manning, A. (2003), ‘Minimum wage - minimum impact’, in Dickens, R., Gregg, P. and Wadsworth, J. (eds), The State of Working Britain, Basingstoke, Palgrave McMillan, pp. 1731, Report prepared for Low Pay Commission.Google Scholar
Ellwood, D. (1982), ‘Teenage unemployment: permanent scars or temporary blemishes?’ in Freeman, R.B. and Wise, D.A. (eds), The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes and Consequences, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, pp. 349–90.Google Scholar
Fairlie, R. and Kletzer, L.G. (2003), ‘The long-term costs of job displacement among young workers,’ Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 56, 4, pp. 682–98.Google Scholar
Falk, A. and Zweimuller, J. (2005), ‘Unemployment and right-wing extremist crime’, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4997.Google Scholar
Fougere, D., Kramarz, F. and Pouget, J. (2006), ‘Youth unemployment and crime in France’, CEPR Discussion paper No. 5600.Google Scholar
Freeman, R.B. (1999), ‘The economics of crime’, in Ashenfelter, O.C. and Card, D. (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3C, North Holland.Google Scholar
Freeman, R.B. and Rodgers, W.B. (1999), ‘Area economic conditions and the labor market outcomes of young men in the I 990s expansion’, NBER Working Paper No. 7073, Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, R.B. and Wise, D.A. (eds) (1982), The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, University of Chicago Press and NBER.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frese, M. and Mohr, G. (1987), ‘Prolonged unemployment and depression in older workers: a longitudinal study of intervening variables, Social Science and Medicine, 25, pp. 173–8.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Frey, B.S. and Stutzer, A. (2002), Happiness and Economics, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Giuliano, P. and Spilimbergo, A. (2009), ‘Growing up in a recession: beliefs and the macroeconomy’, NBER Working Paper No. 15321, September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Godfrey, C., Hutton, S., Bradshaw, J., Coles, B., Craig, G. and Johnson, J. (2002), ‘Estimating the cost of being ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ at age 16-18’, Research Report 346, Department for Education and Skills.Google Scholar
Goldsmith, A.H., Veum, J.R. and Darity, W. (1996), ‘The psychological impact of unemployment and joblessness’, Journal of Socio-Economics, 25, 3, April, pp. 333–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldsmith, A.H., Veum, J.R. and Darity, W. (1997), ‘Unemployment, joblessness, psychological well-being and self-esteem: theory and evidence’, Journal of Socio- Economics, 26 (2), April, pp. 133–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gregg, P.A. (2001), ‘The impact of youth unemployment on adult unemployment in NCDS’, Economic Journal, 111, 475, pp. F62353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gregg, P.A. and Tominey, E. (2005), ‘The wage scar from male youth unemployment’, Labour Economics, 12, pp. 487509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamermesh, D.S and Soss, N.M. (1974), ‘An economic theory of suicide’, Journal of Political Economy, January/February, 82(1), pp. 8398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, K. and Machin, S. (2002), ‘Spatial crime patterns and the introduction of the UK Minimum Wage’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, pp. 677–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iverson, L. and Sabroe, S. (1988), ‘Participation in a follow-up study of health among unemployed and employed people after a company closedown: drop outs and selection bias,’ Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 42, pp. 396401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, P. and Warr, P. (1987), ‘Mental health of unemployed men in different parts of England and Wales’, British Medical Journal, 295, p. 525.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jones, F. and Fletcher, B. (1993), ‘An empirical study of occupational stress transmission in working couples’, Human Relations, 46, pp. 881903.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahn, L.B. (2010), ‘The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy’, Labour Economics, 17, 2, April, pp. 303–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knabe, A. and Ratzel, S. (2008), ‘Scarring or scaring? The psychological impact of past and future unemployment’, Otto- von-Guericke-University Magdeburg, February 2I.Google Scholar
Layard, R. (1986), How to Beat Unemployment, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Layard, R., Nickell, S.N. and Jackman, R. (2005), Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford University Press, 2nd edition.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindsay, C. (2003), ‘A century of labour market change: 19002000’, Labour Market Trends, March, pp. 133–44.Google Scholar
Linn, M., Sandifer, R. and Stein, S. (1985), ‘Effects of unemployment on mental and physical health’, American Journal of Public Health, 75, pp. 502–6.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Luechinger, S., Meier, S. and Stutzer, A. (2008), ‘Why does unemployment hurt the employed? Evidence from the life satisfaction gap between the public and the private sector?’, IZA DP No. 3385, March.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machin, S. and Manning, A. (1999), ‘The causes and consequences of long-term unemployment in Europe’, in Ashenfelter, O.C. and Card, D. (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3C, North Holland.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Makeham, P. (1980), ‘Youth unemployment. An examination of evidence on youth unemployment using national statistics’, London, Department of Employment Research Paper No. 10.Google Scholar
Mattiasson, I., Lindgarde, F., Nilsson, J.A. and Theorell, T. (1990), ‘Threats of unemployment and cardiovascular risk factors: longitudinal study of quality of sleep and serum cholesterol concentrations in men threatened with redundancy’, British Medical Journal, 301, pp. 461–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, S. and Notley, R. (2008), ‘Trade union membership, 2007’, July, Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform.Google Scholar
Metcalf, D. (2008), ‘Why has the British National Minimum Wage had little or no impact on employment?’, Journal of Industrial Relations, 50, 3, June.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, K.A., Goldblatt, P.O., Fox, A.J. and Jones, D.R. (1987), ‘Unemployment and mortality: comparison of the 1971 and 1981 longitudinal study census samples’, British Medical Journal, 1, pp. 8690.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, K.A., Goldblatt, P.O., Fox, A.J. and Jones, D.R. (1990), ‘Unemployment and mortality’ in Goldblatt P.O. (Ed.), Longitudinal Study: Mortality and Social Organisation, London, OPCS, 1990 (Series LS No. 6).Google Scholar
Mroz, T.A. and Savage, T.H. (2006), ‘The long-term effects of youth unemployment’, Journal of Human Resources, Spring, 41, 2, pp. 259–93.Google Scholar
Narendranathan, W. and Elias, P. (1993), ‘Influences of past history on the incidence of youth unemployment: empirical findings for the UK’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 55, pp. 161–85.Google Scholar
Nickell, S.N. (2006), ‘A picture of European unemployment: success and failure’, in Werding, M. (Ed.), Structural unemployment in Western Europe, CESifo Seminar Series, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.Google Scholar
Nickell, S. and Saleheen, J. (2008), ‘The impact of immigration on occupational wages: evidence from Britain’, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Working Paper No. 08-6.Google Scholar
OECD (1986), OECD Employment Outlook, Paris, OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2008a), ‘Off to a good start? Youth labour market transitions in OECD countries’, OECD Employment Outlook, 2008, pp. 2577, Paris, OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2008b), Jobs for Youth - United Kingdom, Paris, OECD.Google Scholar
O'Higgins, N. (1997), ‘The challenge of youth unemployment’, Employment and labour market policies branch action programme on youth unemployment ‘, Geneva, ILO.Google Scholar
Platt, S. (1984), ‘Unemployment and suicidal behaviour: a review of the literature’, Social Science and Medicine, 19, 2, pp. 93115.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pritchard, C. (1992), ‘Is there a link between suicide in young men and unemployment? A comparison of the UK with other European Community Countries?’, The British Journal of Psychiatry, 160, pp. 750–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rice, P. (1999), ‘The impact of local labour markets on investment in higher education: evidence from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies’, Journal of Population Economics, 12, pp. 287312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stewart, M. (2002a) ‘Estimating the impact of the minimum wage using geographical wage variation’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, pp. 583605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stewart, M. (2002b), ‘The employment effects of the National Minimum Wage’, Economic Journal, 114, March, pp. C110C116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stewart, M. (2004), ‘The impact of the introduction of the UK minimum wage on the employment probabilities of low wage workers’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2, pp. 6797.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thornberry, T. and Christensen, R. (1984), ‘Unemployment and criminal involvement. An investigation of reciprocal causal structures’, American Sociological Review, 56, pp. 609–27.Google Scholar
Wells, W. (1983), ‘The relative pay and employment of young people’, Department of Employment Occasional Paper No. 42.Google Scholar
Winkelmann, L. and Winkelmann, R. (1998), ‘Why are the unemployed so unhappy? Evidence from panel data’, Economica, 65, 257, pp. 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar