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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
By almost any criteria 1997 turned out to be a very good year for the British economy. As in the preceding three years, real growth was faster than the rate of consumer price inflation. Unemployment fell very sharply, by almost half a million on the claimant count definition, and around 350,000 mostly full-time jobs were created over the course of the year. The balance of payments showed a surplus on current account of an estimated £4 billion and the fiscal position strengthened significantly. Among the demand components, consumers' expenditure rose by about 4 per cent, largely as a consequence of fast income growth. The windfall payments received by the personal sector on the conversion of some building societies into banks appear to have been mainly saved rather than spent, thereby adding to wealth. Personal sector wealth also benefited from increases in house prices of about 10 per cent and a rise in equity prices of around 20 per cent.
The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. We are grateful to Martin Weale and Nigel Pain for helpful comments and discussion.