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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
The performance of the UK economy in recent months has continued to be enviable. Inflation is almost exactly equal to the government's target. Economic growth has slowed down to what appears to be a sustainable rate of about ½ per cent per quarter. Unemployment is falling, but at a slower rate than last year. Most spectacularly, government borrowing has fallen to within a billion pounds of a balanced budget.
The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. We are grateful to Marie Sheldon for help with the database and Ray Barrell, Martin Weale and Nigel Pain for helpful comments and discussion.