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Section I. Recent developments and summary of the forecast
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
The government's plans for public sector spending set out in its recent spending review caused relatively little surprise as they mainly confirmed what had already been announced in Budget 2000. This was that overall spending, Total Managed Expenditure (TME), would rise by 4 per cent per annum in real terms over the four years to 2003–4. More detail did emerge on how this overall increase would be allocated among the individual government departments. Falling debt interest payments and the effects of lower unemployment on welfare payments and tax receipts will allow departmental spending to rise by an average of 6 per cent per annum in real terms over the same period. A substantial part of this increase is earmarked for capital projects, with the capital budget more than doubling over the four-year period. This means that departmental current spending will rise at the slower rate of about 3 per cent per annum in real terms.
The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. I am grateful to Ray Barrell, Richard Kneller, Nigel Pain, Rebecca Riley and Martin Weale for comment and discussion.