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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
There has been a very sharp deterioration in confidence about the economic situation in the UK over the past three months. This has been highlighted in a range of business and consumer surveys. It is also evident in profit warnings from the corporate sector, falling asset prices, high profile job losses, downward revisions in economic forecasts and an easing of monetary policy. This pessimism is not now confined to the manufacturing sector as appeared to be the case in the earlier part of the year, but seems to pervade all sectors of the economy.
The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. We are grateful to Nigel Pain and Martin Weale for comment and discussion.
(1) See Young, G. (1996), The Influence of Financial Intermediaries on the Behaviour of the UK Economy, NIESR Occasional Paper No.50.