• The economy will grow by only 1.5 per cent in 2011 and 1.8 per cent in 2012.

• Consumer price inflation will be 3.8 per cent this year but fall to 1.8 per cent in 2012.

• The sharp rise in oil prices will raise inflation by over ½ percentage point in 2011.

• Growth over the next two years will come mainly from net trade.

• Real disposable income will fall for the second successive year, by 0.8 per cent in 2011.

• There is a case for delaying some of the austerity programme but accelerating planned increases in the state pension age.