Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-31T16:16:26.319Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Summary of Key Forecast Assumptions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

The forecasts for the world and the UK economy reported in this Review are produced using NIESR's global econometric model, NiGEM. The NiGEM model has been in use at the National Institute for forecasting and policy analysis since 1987, and is also used by a group of about 50 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community. Most countries in the OECD are modelled separately, and there are also separate models of China, India, Russia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, South Africa, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. The rest of the world is modelled through regional blocks so that the model is global in scope. All models contain the determinants of domestic demand, export and import volumes, prices, current accounts and net assets. Output is tied down in the long run by factor inputs and technical progress interacting through production functions, but is driven by demand in the short- to medium-term. Economies are linked through trade, competitiveness and financial markets and are fully simultaneous. Further details on the NiGEM model are available on http://nimodel.niesr.ac.uk/.

Type
The World Economy
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 212 , April 2010 , pp. F24 - F28
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barrell, R., Gottschalk, S., Holland, D., Khoman, E., Liadze, I. and Pomerantz, O. (2008), ‘The impact of EMU on growth and employment’, European Economy, Economic Papers, 318. April.Google Scholar
Barrell, R., Guillemineau, C. and Holland, D. (2007), ‘Decomposing growth in France, Germany and the United Kingdom’, National Institute Economic Review, 199, January, pp. 99–113.Google Scholar
Barrell, R. and Holland, D. (2010), ‘Fiscal and financial responses to the economic downturn’, National Institute Economic Review, 211, January, pp. R51–R62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Hurst, A.I. and Kirby, S., (2009), ‘The macroeconomic implications of pension reform’, in France, D. (ed.), Pension Reform, Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance, Bank of Italy.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, D., Kirby, S. and Whitworth, R. (2010), ‘A comparison of labour market responses to the global downturn, National Institute Economic Review, 211, January, pp. F38–F42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IMF (2010), World Economic Outlook, April.Google Scholar
Larch, M. and Turrini, A. (2008), ‘Received wisdom and beyond; lessons from fiscal consolidation in the EU’, European Economy Economic Paper 320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar