There is now mounting evidence to suggest that positive rates of growth have been restored early this year, but the recovery is likely to be somewhat slower than we had anticipated in January. Our early estimates of monthly GDP suggest that growth in the first quarter was 0.2 per cent. The pattern of monthly GDP suggests that the stagnation in economic growth which began in September last year continued into the first month of 2002, contributing to the weak rate of growth estimated for the first quarter.