The data for the second quarter of 2002 and our own flash estimate for the third quarter of 0.5 per cent growth (which is used in this forecast) suggest that the economy is again growing at close to its trend rate. As often happens in combining quarterly movements to produce annual averages, over the four quarters to the end of this year we expect output to rise by 1.8 per cent, as compared to 1.6 per cent in the four quarters to the end of 2001. Nevertheless output at market prices this year is, on average, expected to be only 1.4 per cent higher than in 2001, while last year output grew by 2 per cent.