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Section I. Recent developments and summary of the forecast

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Andrew P. Blake  and
Garry Young
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Extract

By the third quarter of this year, the economy had grown for thirty-three consecutive quarters since its trough in the second quarter of 1992. Such a long period of expansion inevitably raises questions about its sustainability. Chart 1 compares the paths for the level of output from the last two business cycle troughs in 1981 and 1992.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 174 , October 2000 , pp. 8 - 16
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. We are grateful to Ray Barrell, Richard Kneller, Nigel Pain, Rebecca Riley and Martin Weale for comment and discussion.

References

Note

1 ‘Monetary Challenges in a New Economy’, speech by Sushil Wadhwani to HSBC Global Investment Seminar, 12 October 2000. Emphasis in original.