Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T18:13:13.498Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Prospects for the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ray Barrell  and
Simon Kirby
Ray Barrell
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social ResearchUK
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

GDP growth in 2006 is estimated to have been 2.8 per cent per annum. This rate of growth is above our estimates of the trend rate of growth in the UK. On a quarterly basis the latest estimates suggest that growth above the trend rate occurred in the first half of 2006, with both quarters' growth rates at 0.8 per cent (see figure 1). The second half of the year saw quarterly growth rates at around the trend rate of 0.6 to 0.7 per cent. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP implied that quarterly growth in the first quarter of this year was somewhat lower at 0.5 per cent because of a weak January. After this poor quarterly performance we expect an increase in economic growth due to household and government demand. Overall, this suggests a downward revision to our January forecast of 0.1 percentage points, although this is of little economic importance. We continue to expect the economy to moderate over the next three years. Our forecast is for GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent per annum this year, slowing to 2.6 and 2.4 per cent per annum in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 200 , 01 April 2007 , pp. 34 - 52
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Yound LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, Rio Tinto plc, Unilever plc and Watson Wyatt LLP.

References

Barrell, R. (2007), ‘Retirement and saving’, National Institute Economic Review, 199, pp. 59–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Kirby, S. and Metz, R. (2005), ‘Forecast comparisons’, National Institute Economic Review, 193, pp. 70–4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Kirby, S. and Riley, R. (2004), ‘The current position of UK house prices’, National Institute Economic Review, 189, pp. 57–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beadle, J. (2007), ‘Modernising the UK's National Accounts’, Economic and Labour Market Review, 1, 4, pp. 32–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
HM Treasury (2007), The North Sea Fiscal Regime: a discussion paper.Google Scholar
Kirby, S. and Mitchell, J. (2006), ‘Prudence and UK trend growth’, National Institute Economic Review, 197, pp. 58–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, J. (2003), ‘Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro Area’, revised 2005, NIESR Discussion Paper 225.Google Scholar
Riley, R. and Weale, M. (2006), ‘Commentary: immigration and its effects’, National Institute Economic Review, 198, pp. 4–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treasury Committee (2007), Fifth Report of Session 2006–07, The Budget 2007, HC 389–1.Google Scholar