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The National Institute Density Forecasts of Inflation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

James Mitchell
James Mitchell*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
*
e-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

This paper has three aims. First, we summarise and thereby make readily available the historical time-series of quarterly density forecasts of year ahead RPIX (RPI excluding mortgage payments) inflation made by the National Institute for the period 1994Q1–2004Q4. Previous work has focused on those forecasts made in Q4 only. Secondly, we evaluate the quality of these density forecasts. Thirdly, with the benefit of hindsight we draw lessons for the future production and use of density forecasts.

Keywords

density forecastsevaluating forecastsinflation forecastingC53E37
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 193 , July 2005 , pp. 60 - 69
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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