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Factors Affecting the US Current Account: An Historical Decomposition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

R. Barrell ,
D. Holland  and
I. Hurst
R. Barrell
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social ResearchUK
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Extract

The US current account deficit was around 6½ per cent of GDP in 2006, having risen by 2 per cent of GDP since 2002 when the dollar reached its peak and started to decline. Between the peak in 2002 and the last quarter of 2006 the dollar fell by 13.4 per cent in effective terms using 2003 trade weights, and it might have been expected that the current account would have improved. However, over the same period the household savings rate fell by more than 4 per cent of personal incomes and private sector investment rose by 0.6 per cent of GDP. At the same time, the public sector deficit improved by around 1 per cent of GDP, but this was not enough to offset the major decline in net savings in the private sector. These domestic imbalances have been partly responsible for the deterioration in the current account, and appear to have more than offset the impacts of the decline in the dollar. In addition, since 2002 the oil price has risen and this has led to a significant deterioration in the US current account.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 200 , 01 April 2007 , pp. 31 - 33
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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