^{page 65 note (1)} R. R. Neild and E. A. Shirley, ‘Economic Review: an assessment of forecasts, 1959-60’, National Institute Economic Review No. 15, May 1961; M. C. Kennedy, ‘How well does the National Institute forecast?’, National Institute Economic Review No. 50, November 1969; and R. L. Major and M. J. C. Surrey, ‘Errors in National Institute forecasts of the balance of payments’, National Institute Economic Review No. 52, May 1970.

^{page 65 note (2)} Adjusted figures are shown in the tables in italics. The basis of the adjustments is explained in Appendix I.

^{page 65 note (3)} For GNP, commodity prices, imports and exports the naive method was to assume that the percentage change would be the same as in the preceding year. For current balances it was based on the assumption of no change from the preceding year's outcome.

^{page 67 note (1)} National Institute forecasts for the World Economy, unlike those for the United Kingdom, which assume unchanged policies, are intended to indicate what will actually happen after taking account not only of what is expected on current policies but also of the likely government response to events. OECD forecasts apparently assume unchanged policies, as do EEC forecasts, which are scrupulously separated from policy recommendations.

^{page 74 note (1)} F. Meyer-zu-Schlochtern and A. Yajima, ‘OECD trade model, 1970 version’, OECD Economic Outlook, Occasional Studies, December 1970.