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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Reconstruction of the course of demand and output during the first half of this year is still extremely difficult as a result of distortions caused by the miners' strike in the first quarter and, to a lesser extent, by the aftermath of the United States dock strike last year. In addition, doubts are now openly expressed by Central Statistical Office about the validity of the seasonal adjustment process applied to the expenditure estimate of GDP (and perhaps the income estimate too) in the first quarter. This is estimated have fallen, in real terms, by 3¾ per cent, compared with falls of about 2½ and 1 per cent in the income and output measures respectively.
page 7 note (1) See Economic Trends, no. 225, July 1972.
page 7 note (2) This series showed a fall of 90,000 between April and June.
page 8 note (1) See Financial Statement and Budget Report, 1972-73, HMSO, page 10.
page 9 note (1) National Institute Economic Review no. 60, May 1972, pages 16-21.
page 11 note (1) National Institute Economic Review no. 42, November 1967, pages 5-6.
page 11 note (2) ‘The effects of the devaluation of 1967’, The Economic Journal, March 1972, Supplement.
page 11 note (3) Preliminary simulations of the London Business School model, by R. J. Ball, T. Burns, and G. Miller. Paper prepared for the Conference on Modelling of the UK Economy, July 1972.
page 11 note (4) This assumption is borne out by the replies to a question naire which was sent out in mid-July to the Institute's panel of 59 businessmen in manufacturing industry. The aim was to gather information on business attitudes to the float and the likely reactions to it. The results were consistent with the general tone of the export forecast given here. In addition, several respondents indicated that the float had introduced an element of uncertainty into their export operations.
The Institute is grateful to all those who cooperated in this survey.
page 13 note (1) See National Institute Economic Review no. 60, May 1972, pages 5-6, 9-12, for further details.
page 14 note (1) Economic Trends, no. 225, July 1972, page vii.
page 15 note (1) For details of the calculations, see National Institute Economic Review no. 60, May 1972, pages 16-21.
page 15 note (2) Some of the results will appear in ‘An analysis of con sumer credit and its effects on purchases of consumer durables’, by N. C. Garganas—forthcoming in a series of papers presented to the Conference on Modelling of the UK economy at the London Business School, July 1972.
page 22 note (1) Lockheed have around 150 firm orders for the Tristar which is in full production and has been introduced into airline service.
page 23 note (1) It has now been agreed that Britain will, after 1 January 1973, gradually raise the tariff on paper and board from these two countries from its present zero level to 8 per cent by the end of the transition period in 1977, by which time the EEC tariff on similar products will have fallen to the same level. The protective value of the new tariff will, however, be substantially offset, certainly in the early part of the period, by the further agreement to grant the Swedes and Finns duty-free quotas based on the level of British imports from these countries during a reference period from 1968 to 1971.