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Chapter 1. The Position at the Turn of the Year
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Chapter 1 gives a brief summary of trends in Britain in 1960, and surveys the state of British industry at the end of the year. Chapter 2 looks at world developments and prospects—in particular at the world payments difficulties developing in 1960. In the light of these trends, Chapter 3 considers Britain's export trade and her balance of payments. Chapter 4 then gives a forecast for the British economy during 1961. Chapter 5 examines the world problem of reserves and trade and, finally, considers the problems of current economic policy.
(1) Appendix table 14.
(1) Appendix table 3.
(1) Appendix table 3.
(1) In parts of this section, we have drawn on a paper presented by Mr. Hal B. Lary of the National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, to the American Economic Association on December 30, 1960. The figures in this section (and in chart 9) are the seasonally adjusted figures published by the Department of Commerce. They differ from the figures in table 12, which are adjusted to make them comparable with those of other countries, and which are not seasonally corrected.
(a) The total net balance includes the movement of short-term capital, and errors and omissions.
(b) Excluding military expenditure.
(c) This includes Government grants, Government loans and credits (net of repayments), remittances and pensions, United States privatelong-term capital abroad (net of repayments) minus foreign long-term investment in the United States.
(1) Survey of Current Business, December 1960.
(2) In the course of the election, Mr. Kennedy attacked the administration for bringing about a fall in short-term interest rates which stimulated the outflow of capital while allowing high long-term rates to impede domestic investment. He advocated a ‘more flexible’ use of interest rates. (New York Times, October 31, 1960).
(1) See for example the Bundesbank's forecast quoted in National Institute Economic Review, no. 9, May 1960, page 18.
(2) IFO enquiries, quoted by EEC Quarterly Report, December 1960.
(1) The figures quoted are those published by the Bundes bank. For a comparison of the German balances with those of other countries, on a standard basis, see table 12.
(2) Monthly Report of the Bundesbank, October 1960.
(1) Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der westdeutschen Wirtschaft, December 1960.
(2) Estimates by US State Department.