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The Economic Situation: Annual Review

Chapter I. Home Demand: Past and Prospects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The dividing line in recent economic trends came in the middle of 1960 when the short sharp burst of expansion in the British economy stopped. Since then, there has been little further growth. There was no increase in real demand in the second half of 1960, a rise in the first half of 1961, and a downturn in the second half. It is too early to say for certain how big this last fall was; but—allowing for seasonality—it probably left demand and output at the end of 1961 less than 1 per cent higher than they had been eighteen months earlier (table 1 and chart 1).

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 19 , February 1962 , pp. 4 - 18
Copyright
Copyright © 1962 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Note (1) page 6 This is savings (the balance between the official estimates of personal disposable income and consumers' expenditure) omitting the changes in personal and professional bank advances, and in hire purchase debt.

Note (1) page 8 This forecast of incomes does in fact require a forecast of the increase in total demand : the process of successive approximation by which these forecasts are arrived at is described in R. R. Neild and E. A. Shirley, ‘Economic Review : an assessment of forecasts, 1959-1960’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 15, May 1961.

Note (1) page 10 That is, the price of all goods and services sold in this country, plus exports.

(2) Defined in footnote 1, page 6.

Note (1) page 13 In summer 1956, in a similar situation to that in 1961, manufacturers forecast a 1 per cent fall in investment in 1957. However, in the year 1957 manufacturing investment rose 10 per cent.

Note (1) page 14 Weekly Hansard no. 532, 21 July-27 July 1961, page 224.