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The Chemicals Industry: Problems of Projection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

R.E. Crum
R.E. Crum*
Affiliation:
National Institute
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Extract

Three projections have been published in the last two years which give figures for the possible pattern of industrial production which might accompany certain growth-rates of total national output between 1964 and 1970, or 1964 and 1975. One of the problems in calculations of this kind is to find a sensible way of projecting the output of industries like the chemicals industry, which mainly supply other industries rather than the final consumer, and whose products have been gaining at the expense of traditional materials : the input of chemicals, per unit of output of the user industries, has been tending to rise.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 37 , August 1966 , pp. 39 - 48
Copyright
Copyright © 1966 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

note (1) page 39 Excluding the manufacture of coal-tar products by tar distillation (271/3) and including matches (499), in order to fit the 1954 Input-Output tables.

note (2) page 39 The National Plan, HMSO, September 1965. W. Beckerman and Associates, The British Economy in 1975, Cambridge University Press, September 1965. Exploring 1970 : some numerical results’, A Programme for Growth, Part 6, Chapman and Hall for the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, July 1965.

note (3) page 39 The movement of ‘compromise’ gross domestic product was used. See Appendix II, page 82, National Institute Economic Review, February 1966.

note (4) page 39 This is because industrial production forms a larger proportion of the planned increase in national output from 1964 to 1970 than it did of the past increase in output from 1954 to 1964.

note (5) page 39 See Appendix, page 49, for definitions of organic and inorganic chemicals.

note (1) page 41 Input-Output Tables for the United Kingdom 1954, Board of Trade and Central Statistical Office, 1961.

note (2) page 41 Input-output tables will be prepared on the basis of the 1963 Census of Production; however, it will probably be some time before they are published. It was not until 1961 that the 1954 Input-Output tables were published—a delay of seven years.

note (3) page 41 Both the Netherlands and Norway have annual tables from 1947 covering 35 and over 87 production sectors respectively. All the EEC countries have produced a table for 1959 or 1960 and are working on more up-to-date tables. See Problems of input-output tables and analysis, Studies in Methods Series F, No. 14, United Nations.

note (4) page 41 We are indebted to the Central Statistical Office for providing us with 38 output series for the years 1954-64 that cover the 45 industry sectors of the 1954 Input-Output tables.

note (5) page 41 Final home expenditure was defined as personal and public consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Stocks were excluded from the analysis.

note (1) page 44 D. W. F. Hardie and J. Davidson Pratt, A History of the Modern British Chemical Industry, Pergamon Press.

note (2) page 44 See Appendix, page 52.

note (3) page 44 Farmers' output at constant prices : Annual Abstract of Statistics 1965, table 210.

note (4) page 44 The output index for this group excludes disinfectants, insecticides, weed killers, sheep and cattle dips, etc., which between them accounted for about 20 per cent of the sales of the industry in 1954 and 1958.

note (1) page 47 C. Freeman, ‘The plastics industry : a comparative study of research and innovation’, National Institute Economic Review No. 26, November 1963.

note (1) page 48 These points are discussed in the Appendix, page 48.