Soon after our last forecast of industrial production it became apparent that we had overestimated the strength of the recovery. At the time of that report in August the only indications of a setback to growth were the figures available for June. These showed such a large fall from the previous month that we interpreted them as a temporary aberration. In fact they signalled a step down in the rate of growth and since then the trend has been much lower than in the first five months of the year.