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Chapter III. Production

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The industrial production index gave a rather misleading impression of stagnation in the middle of the year. There had been a sharp rise from the fourth quarter of 1963 to the first quarter of 1964; then the index was flat for two quarters; and finally in the fourth quarter there was another substantial jump. This made the increase during the year (between the fourth quarter of 1963 and 1964) 5½ per cent. For the year as a whole industrial production was 7½ per cent higher than in 1963. This apparent slowing-down in the middle of the year was probably partly genuine —there is some evidence for it in the estimates from the side of expenditure (page 5)—and partly probably a change in seasonal patterns.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 31 , February 1965 , pp. 31 - 43
Copyright
Copyright © 1965 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 33 A preliminary report on the Inquiry was released to the Press on 17 February.

note (1) page 34 An analysis was made of the accuracy of export forecasts according to size of firms in the mechanical engineering industry. The major error occurred in the group of medium sized firms employing 1,500-5,000 persons, which forecast an increase in exports of 16 per cent, but whose exports actually fell by 2 per cent. The forecasts by small firms, employing less than 1,500 persons, were, however, no worse than those of the large firms employing more than 5,000, and their export performance was actually rather better.

note (1) page 35 January-September in both years.

note (2) page 35 This is the 1958-weighted value of material costs (+ 3 per cent) and wage rates (+ 4½ per cent) in the ratio 60 : 40.

note (1) page 38 Coke is grouped with oil refining in the subdivisions of the index of industrial production.