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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The recession had probably reached its trough by the middle of the year. Total output in the United States hardly changed in the second quarter and the industrial component began to rise slightly in June, while in Japan industrial production has been increasing since March. On the other hand it now appears that in a number of other industrial countries, notably France and West Germany, output in the early months of the year was substantially lower than we suggested in May and the decline in OECD's aggregate GDP will probably be of the order of 2–2½ per cent for 1975 as a whole. In 1976 we now expect an increase of nearly 5 per cent.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 73 , August 1975 , pp. 25 - 40
Copyright
Copyright © 1975 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

(page 26 note 1) OECD, Economic Outlook 17, July 1975, page 23.

(page 34 note 1) These percentages are based on recent estimates by the United States Department of Labor (which in the case of Great Britain point to a substantially lower figure than that which we derived in May from the Department's earlier estimates).

(page 36 note 1) Unless otherwise indicated, prices throughout the world trade and payments section are given in terms of ‘new’ SDRs (that is a weighted average of currency values, see National Institute Economic Review no. 69, August 1974, page 45).

(page 36 note 2) World economic interdependence and trade in commodities, HMSO, Cmnd 6061, May 1975.

(page 39 note 1) The OECD's forecast of a deterioration in member countries' trade balances from now on depends partly on a rebound in the volume of oil imports on a scale which seems to us surprising even though OECD's output figures are more optimistic than our own.