Since we produced our August forecasts the prospects for the world economy have deteriorated. Several OPEC oil producers have announced increases which take their prices above the ceiling of the ‘price plus premium’ to which they had jointly agreed, and the outlook for consumers of oil has been further worsened by the announcement of impending reductions in rates of output. Saudi Arabia maintains a relatively moderate stance, but hopes that it would be able and willing to increase its output sufficiently to enforce its wishes on price can no longer be entertained.