The forecasts we have made for the UK economy during the past year have all shown not just the end of the current downturn, but a noticeable, if small, recovery in economic activity subsequently. On this occasion the profile differs (table 1); although the decline in GDP seems to have ended in the last quarter of 1980 there is now no forecast of a recovery before the end of 1982. As a result of upward revisions of data for the past the estimated decline in GDP in 1980 of 2.7 per cent and the forecast further decline of 1¼ per cent in 1981 are similar to those we published in November. The level of GDP suggested for 1981 is also little changed but its composition is different (table 2).