The information which has become available since the May Review forecast has not altered our view in any significant respect. The latest earnings figures (for May) show an increase of 11½ per cent (new index) and 14 per cent (old index) so far in Stage III; these are consistent with our assumption of an outturn for the year of a rise of about 15 per cent. There has not yet been any change in the general tendency of unemployment, while the estimated current balance surplus in the second quarter of just over £200 million was quite close to our forecast (though month-to-month changes have continued to be highly erratic).