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Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

We start our forecast this time with an exchange rate 9½ per cent higher in the third quarter of this year than we anticipated in May. The main reason for the appreciation of sterling was probably a reassessment by the market of the likely course of UK monetary policy over the next year or two. The likelihood of an early and significant fall in interest rates has receded, as forecasts of the underlying rate of inflation have been revised up. At the same time the commitment to join the exchange-rate mechanism has become firmer, and the Chancellor has been interpreted as wishing to ‘talk the rate up’.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 133 , August 1990 , pp. 7 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The forecasts were prepared by Bob Anderton, Andrew Britton, and Soterios Soteri, but they draw on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis and modelbuilding at the Institute. Parts One and Two of the chapter were written by Andrew Britton, Part Three by Bob Anderton.

References

Note

(1) ‘Monetary policy in the second half of the 1980s’ lecture by the Governor of the Bank of England at the University of Durham, reprinted in the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, May 1990. See also ‘Official Statistics in the late 1980s’ by J. Hibbard, Treasury Bulletin, Summer 1990.