⁽¹⁾ This is the turning point identified by the CSO. An alternative view is that, with the rate of increase in total output averaging only 2¼ per cent a year over the six quarters between the second of 1981 and the fourth of 1982, expansion only really got underway at the beginning of 1983. However, there is no doubting the fact that there has been an exceptionally long phase of steady, but not rapid, growth.

⁽²⁾ The relationship between the replies to the CBI Survey and the movement of the manufacturing production index is analysed in the article by S. Wren-Lewis in this issue of the Review.

⁽¹⁾ Whereas the cash plans given in the Public Expenditure White Paper seem to imply a small decline in the volume of direct expenditure (see the February Review, pp. 21-2).

⁽¹⁾ It is provisionally estimated by the CSO that the consumer price index, the price deflator of real personal disposable income, rose by only 1¼-1½ per cent in the second quarter—a very much smaller rise than that in the retail price index (see below). The difference can be partly, but by no means wholly, accounted for by the fact that the consumer price index is seasonally adjusted and was unaffected by the increase in mortgage rates in April.

⁽¹⁾ This projection allows for the fact that social security benefits will be uprated in July next year, rather than in November. Whereas the November upratings were based on the increase in the retail price index from May to May, the July uprating is to be based on the increase from May to January. The probable effect of this will be to reduce slightly payments for social security in the current financial year.

⁽¹⁾ Statistical Appendix, table 14.

⁽¹⁾ Statistical Appendix, table 15.

⁽¹⁾ MSC Labour Market Quarterly Report, February 1985.

⁽²⁾ We have assumed that 70 per cent of the change in employment in manufacturing will be reflected in registered unemployment, but only 20 per cent of the changes in non-manufacturing employment and in self-employment.

⁽³⁾ Employment Gazette, July 1985, pp. 255-64.

⁽⁴⁾ See the May Review, no. 112, pp. 7-8.

⁽⁵⁾ It was suggested in the February Review (p. 14) that the official estimates of net property income might be too low.

⁽¹⁾ As usual, these are defined as constant indexed tax rates and allowances. No ‘fiscal adjustment’ is assumed.

⁽²⁾ See the Bank of England Quarteriy Bulletin for June, pp. 186 and 189.

⁽¹⁾ Real national income is about 3/4 per cent lower, however, because of the worsening in the terms of trade.